Campaigning: Where there is no leadership, uncertainty grows – Column Henrik Mல்லller

Leadership in democracy is a difficult word. Independent societies are based on personal responsibility and conflict. Every citizen must act as the sovereign of his own life. The so-called “free development of personality” in the fundamental law is at the center of our social order. It brings political leadership and personal freedom into tension: those who are independent do not want to be guided.

Angela Merkel As his longtime president he resolved this conflict in the expectation of minimal leadership for the citizens. For 16 years he demanded as little as possible from the people. No fundamental reforms, no vision, no big plans, no far-sighted plans. Citizens should be able to shape their lives in a stable environment, often without being affected by politics. It was only when there were major crises that “knocking” ensured that things did not go out of hand – so that things could continue as before.

A strange, soft language has become commonplace in politics under Merkel. Politicians make “concessions” (like corona vaccines), which they advise, ask, and recommend. Guide? D is not the opposite.

Easy to make fun of. But the Germans think they are good. Merkel’s approval ratings are as follows: Brilliant. Shortly before the end of their term, three-quarters of German citizens say, “A great president.” ARD Germany Trend Study From Infratest-Dimap. The verdict applies across parties (except AfD supporters).

Times are not so harmonious. An enormous pressure to change cannot ignore the next federal government. To change the direction of the community, leadership is essential. Even if it is unpopular.

“Keep it up”, it doesn’t work anymore

Merkel is very lucky. The German economy grew well, thanks to globalization, lower interest rates – and red-green labor market reforms implemented by the previous government (the “Hearts Laws”). Millions of new jobs have been created during his tenure as president. Immigration from other parts of Europe contributed to a prolonged rise in the German labor market, which would otherwise have been without staff for a long time. Taxes and social boxes were overflowing with money, thus expanding social benefits (including retirement at 63, long-term attraction to unemployment benefits) and legal introduction Minimum wage Possible when the long-term alliance is a partner SPD Insisted on it.

The next federal government will face very difficult questions. Citizens suspect it. Now they obviously want a powerful leadership – they do not trust all three candidates for president.

Only 16 percent like it Annalena Barbach Led by the next government, 20 percent Armin Lashed, 35 per cent Olaf Scholes. Excitement seems different.

However, it is not possible to continue the “business as usual”. Corona virus infection management has mercilessly exposed the weaknesses of the management system (Attention Tuesday To the next round of Prime Ministers and Chancellors). Then there are the great challenges Climate change, population, Digitalization A tense geopolitical situation in which Germany and its EU partners need to clearly position themselves.

In the years to come, many basic decisions will be required. For example:

Climate: The path to climate neutrality is long. Germany lags behind other Western states “Energy Change Ranking” The World Economic Forum shows. Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy in this country, the individual emissions of climate-damaging gases are almost twice as high as in France, Great Britain or Italy. If the curriculum does not change, emissions will increase slightly by 2030, The International Monetary Fund has calculated. The now-emerging federal climate protection package is set to begin a rapid decline. However, the contradiction between climate protection, the nuclear phase and coal-fired power generation was only reluctantly discussed in Germany.

population: During this decade, the potential workforce in Germany will begin to dwindle. So far there is no comprehensive political answer to this. It’s going Pension FundIts financial horizon will not last beyond 2025. 100 100 billion flows annually from the federal budget into pensions. The amount threatens to rise further; Accordingly, funding for other purposes will become very scarce. Raising the retirement age becomes essential when life expectancy increases, but parties and candidates avoid the question. This also applies to the labor market, where the population becomes less and less labor-intensive. Nevertheless, middle- and middle-income earners continue to be downgraded with high social contributions. In fact, population change forces one Agenda 2030, Including a long-term immigration and integration strategy. But this topic did not feature in the election campaign. Guide? Nothing.

Digitalization: It is now commonplace that the corona crisis has greatly accelerated digitization. Still, the level of backwardness is frightening. We are far behind. For example, when it comes to fast internet connections, Germany is Ranking der OECD Between the Czech Republic and Estonia, it lags far behind the best actors like South Korea and Sweden. The share of fiber optic connections in private Internet connections was less than 4 percent in 2019, 20 percent in France and 70 percent in Sweden. According to a study by the Allesburg Institute of Demoscopy in Germany, 94 percent of German citizens say Lags behind in digitalization. 59% think that anyone who stands as a champion in digitalisation is not in politics. Guide? Not in view.

Security Policy: The challenges of China, Russia and other dictatorial countries are increasing. But what strategic decisions do we draw from this? Under Angela Merkel, the Federal Republic functioned as a small country that had no choice but to adapt to international conditions and use them – When in doubt, be opportunistic.

But Germany is not a small country, it is big and influential. Instead of working with France to advance the integration of the European Armed Forces and the European Union and the Eurozone in general To weather resistant For the geo-strategic struggle with the dictators of this world, there is the occasional symbolic politics – as it is now Ship’s Asian voyage “Bavaria”.

Political stories and other force activities

The federal republic faces big questions – but the election campaign is mired in trivialities.

Where there is no leadership, uncertainty grows. It can be measured in the long run that there is uncertainty in the further course of the Federal Republic of Germany Dominant economic policy uncertainty Our Dortmund Research Center was created according to a study by DoCMA. That is problematic.

Leadership is needed to initiate change. That is: focus on solving less central problems – so a better future will appear behind them. Admittedly, such content centralization has become too difficult for politics, not just the complexity of the questions at hand. Headlines and images coming from the depths of social media contribute to trivializing the election campaign.

Still: Political leadership in independent societies has a chance only if it can persuade citizens. It tells believable stories. Coherent narratives have the power to change the collective sense of reality – and with it reality. When things go well, joint strength actions are possible.

Angela Merkel did not excel as the best storyteller of her tenure. The fact that this deficit was so low was due in particular to the four major crises that shaped his tenure: The financial crisis, The euro crisis, Refugee crisis, Coronakris. Sets the agenda of distant uprisings; Merkel was able to rule in response to unforeseen events. This obscured the lack of ambition, otherwise it would have been proven for a long time.

Your heirs will have a hard time.