September 20, 2021

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Is it high ?: The British corona phenomenon is declining rapidly

After an increase of about a month in the number of corona cases in Great Britain, the increase came to an abrupt halt, and for two weeks these incidents have been falling as fast as before. The situation is similar in the Netherlands. Is it the beginning of the end of the epidemic?

When Great Britain lifted almost all corona controls on July 19, all experts expect a further sharp increase in new epidemics, despite a further increase in the number of cases and cases already very high. However, surprisingly, the opposite is true: since the UK 7-day event peaked on July 21, with nearly 48,000 cases per 100,000 population, it has been falling almost vertically. Yesterday the value was already less than 33,000. That is, can Great Britain escape the worst and now be able to celebrate independence?

Johnson is cautious

The government is still cautious. “It’s very quick to make any decisions,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the radio station today. LBC. “The virus is not there yet, it is in humans. It still poses a significant risk.”

In fact, the current developments are a big surprise to the British government as well. The Modeling The Scientific Advisory Committee on Emergencies (SAGE) expects the peak of the third corona wave to roll freely, beginning in mid-August with 100,000 new infections, 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions and 100 to 200 deaths per day.

In their modeling, SAGE scientists point to human behavior as the greatest cause of uncertainty. They thought their behavior would not change suddenly, but slowly over the months. This means – as is still needed – that they isolate themselves if they come in contact with the victim or show symptoms, voluntarily wear masks, or work in the home office. In the worst case, the model is admitted to the hospital up to 4800 daily.

Is people’s general knowledge underestimated?

So British scientists may have underestimated their fellow citizens. Among other things, most Englishmen viewed “Independence Day” very critically. One UK Statistical Institute study According to 54 percent of those surveyed, they were concerned about it, and 20 percent of them were very concerned.

Eighty-seven percent of English adults prefer to be alone, and two-thirds (64 percent) prefer to wear a mask when shopping or on public transportation. Sixty percent said people would avoid crowded places even after the restrictions were lifted.

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Health care expert Paul Hunter said the effects of “Independence Day” could not be seen in the figures until Friday BBC. Nevertheless, the data so far are at least as good as in the summer. “If I had to bet, I would say the impact of July 19 would not be enough to bring back the case numbers, but I’m not sure.”

Virologist Stephen Griffin considers that “many people” have isolated themselves after contact with the infected person over the past few weeks. In fact, it is very common for the UK economy to suffer from lost work. Newspapers there call it “PingTemi” because people are asked to isolate the British corona alarm from the ping tone. Self-isolation is mandatory until August 16, even for those who have been vaccinated twice.

Schools play an important role

According to Griffith, many students in their class had to stay home after a corona case. In addition, the UK school holidays began on July 25th. It certainly has a significant impact on events in the kingdom. Because loud Statistical Institute The number of cases has risen sharply, especially among 16- to 24-year-olds. This phenomenon is sharply elevated among the young, but has recently flattened out – may be due to loneliness.

This is also the reason why fall events among school students are definitely not tested regularly without school lessons. Govt-19 is often very harmless or asymptomatic in young people, so many infections are likely to go unnoticed at present.

At the end of the European Football Championship, there was a lot of information from the affected fans, who had a role to play. The example of Scotland shows that competition has contributed to a relatively large proportion of the infectious process. Shortly after the departure of the Scottish national team, the number of cases was lower than in England.

A high vaccination rate is important

The last few weeks may have had a positive effect on the good weather events in Great Britain as well. The main factor behind the sharp decline may be the high level of immunity that the British people have now achieved. This is determined by performing blood tests for antibodies in the representative population groups. Noise Institute of Statistics In Great Britain the value is already 92 per cent. Immunity is 89 percent in Scotland and less than 93 percent in Wales.

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Immunity is high because the vaccination rate is high. About 71 per cent of the UK population already has full coverage, and more than 88 per cent have at least the first dose. The preference for vaccination is very high in the UK, according to statistics, which show that 90 per cent of 16- to 29-year-olds and 96 per cent of all Britons are ready to be vaccinated or have already been vaccinated.

Most of the unknowns are children and adolescents. With this age decline those age groups will become a problem for the UK. Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson said.The Times“With the cold weather, the numbers may rise again during the school holidays, but he hopes to see a return to most of the epidemics in late September and early October.

Some more seriously ill and dead people

The main reason for this is that more cases in younger population groups are not admitted to the hospital accordingly. Although they have increased proportionately in the number of cases, they are not yet disconnected, but they are at a much lower level than they were last in the winter waves.

Currently about 900 people are admitted to hospitals every day due to Govt-19, up from more than 4000 in January. Currently, there are approximately 800 intensive care beds for corona patients requiring ventilation; At the peak of the winter wave it is still clear the difference of about 4000 deaths, which is now 60 per day compared to 1300 per day in mid-January.

So England have a good chance of a relatively loose autumn. It is very difficult to predict about the Netherlands, where the 7 day events suddenly collapsed like the UK. Since July 19, the value there has halved from about 400 to about 200.

The Netherlands presents an even bigger puzzle

The reasons for Corona landing in the Netherlands may be the same as in Great Britain, but official information is not yet available. Since July 26, all parts of the Netherlands have been on school holidays, and in the north of the country they started on July 12, seven days later in the middle. In addition, the weather in our neighboring country was friendly to July.

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More or less forced change in people’s behavior can also play a role. So the 7 day event increased SuddenlyAfter the government drastically removed the restrictions at the end of June. After several Supersperter events in the nightlife, he pulled the torn cord on July 10 and closed the clubs again. Since then, restaurants, bars and cafes have to be closed from midnight to 6am.

Not so loose in the fall

While the number of cases continues to decline, the Netherlands will not be able to face the fall as leisurely as the UK. Because the vaccination rate is still very low. But things are a little better in the Netherlands than in Germany. Even there, only half of the population is fully protected so far, but about 69 percent have received the first dose.

This is 8 percent higher than in Germany and may be due to a higher preference for vaccination. According to the health authority R.I.V.M. This is 90 percent across the country, and even 81 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds want to be vaccinated or are willing to do so.

However, vaccine progress has been slow in the Netherlands. The lower vaccination rate compared to Great Britain reflects a stronger increase in hospital admissions. With a population of about 17.5 million, the 7-day average for Kovit 19 admissions has risen from seven to about 73 in early July, and the number of intensive care beds occupied by corona patients has risen from 120 to 465.

But these are still acceptable figures compared to peaks in autumn, winter or spring. And since most elderly people in the Netherlands are vaccinated, more cases do not lead to more deaths. The 7-day average is currently two to three deaths, down from the July 10 low of 1.3.