The danger of complete collapse in Afghanistan

Advance: Taliban soldiers with an armed vehicle deep in downtown Kunduz on Monday this week. Photo: Abdullah Sahel/AP

While the Afghan government army lays down its weapons and flees, the Taliban constantly occupy new cities. The military expert explains that the danger of complete collapse is imminent.

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District after district fell, but until last week, the Taliban’s advance was primarily targeting rural areas, with a move away from cities.

Then came a quick turn: nine provincial capitals were conquered, four more were trapped and on the verge of falling. The Taliban now controls more than 60 percent of Afghanistan.

between cities there The Taliban quickly gained the upper hand in the major cities Like Kunduz and Kandahar. The news came, on Wednesday evening, that Faizabad, the capital of Badakhshan province in northern Afghanistan, is also under the control of the Taliban.

Mazar-i-Sharif, where the Norwegian Armed Forces have had a strong military presence for a long time, is among the major cities that could fall at any time.

The Taliban’s victories went faster than expected. It strengthens the psychological factor of war, and increases the risk of mass collapse among government forces, explains Navy Captain Thomas Slinsvik, Senior Instructor of Strategy and Doctrine at the Norwegian Defense College.

the last: The Taliban can encircle the Afghan capital, Kabul, within 30 days, and may be able to capture the city within 90 days. A US military official told Reuters, citing an intelligence report.

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In Kunduz: Taliban fighters at a guard post in Kunduz city this week. Photo: Abdullah Sahel / AP

Ethics fail

Slinsvik points out that the Taliban should not be seen as a guerrilla force, but rather as an ordinary army using guerrilla tactics.

On paper, the Afghan army is strong enough to defend itself against the Taliban. Slinsvik explains that he got used to having a security network through the presence of NATO, which created a framework for the fight against the Taliban.

The Taliban, for its part, has a more established structure and more combative soldiers. They have morale and motivation on their side. It doesn’t help the government army get better gear, if the soldiers don’t want to fight, he continues.

He compares Slinsvik to the Iraqi government army, which recklessly fled Mosul when ISIS fighters seized the city in 2014. Now something similar is happening in parts of Afghanistan.

This is how the Islamic State was expelled: VG inside the battle of Mosul

The military expert believes that the Taliban has been able to strategize for a long time, since then US withdrawal, known for a long time.

The Taliban took over areas in northern Afghanistan where they had no control the last time they seized power in the country. The big question now is whether there is a downward spiral toward total collapse, or whether there is stability in effective and lasting resistance in some areas, says Slensvik.

Slinsvik warns of the shock effect of the rapid advance, which makes government soldiers fear for their families’ future and lose faith in victory. The same was noted by PRIO researcher and Afghan expert Christian Berg Harpviken.

The attack was a shock. They knew the Taliban would take over new territories, but that would happen very quickly, and would target large and important cities, they didn’t think, says Harpviken.

Facts: Taliban advance

* The United States and NATO began their withdrawal from Afghanistan in May.

* At the same time, the Taliban launched a major offensive and took control of 85 percent of the country in July. Information varies about how many areas they control.

– In July, the rebels took control of strategically important border crossings with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Pakistan.

* Then came the turn of the administrative centers in the country’s 34 provinces.

* In August, the Taliban took control of seven regional capitals: Zaranj in Nimroz, Sheberghan in Jawzjan, Sar-e-Pul in Sar-e-Pul, Talukan in Takhar, Kunduz in Kunduz, and Aibak in Samangan. In addition, the extremist group will occupy Faizabad, the capital of Badakhshan Province in northern Afghanistan.

* The rebels also besieged and are now attacking several other regional capitals, including Kandahar in Kandahar, Lashkar Gah in Helmand, Herat in Herat, and Mazar-i-Sharif in Balkh.

* In many of these cities, Taliban fighters are heavily present and control a number of districts.

Source: NTB

Resistance: A government army soldier in Herat last week when heavy fighting broke out against the Taliban. Photo: Jalil Rezaei/EPA

Free rent promise

He points out that a large part of the government army had broken in and laid down their arms against the promise of free rent. There are also more enthusiastic units, not least among the special forces, Harpviken explains.

Afghan and American combat aircraft tried to defend the provincial capitals, and the bombing of densely populated areas from the air killed many civilians.

It will be crucial if the United States continues to provide air support to the government’s military. This will make the Taliban advance militarily more difficult. But at the same time, it will mean more Afghan civilians will be killed, which in turn will increase support for the Taliban, Harpviken points out.

Taliban Last week, the capital, Kabul, was rocked by two violent attacksWhere terrorist bombs, assassinations and warriors who fought to the death were among the tools.

President Ashraf Ghani had to become a local warlord to gain support in several cities. But these militias are accused of assaulting the people, Describe Foreign Policy.

Ghani flew from Kabul to Mazar-i-Sharif on Wednesday to support government forces there.

Military soldier: A militia soldier fighting for a local warlord, against the Taliban, is pictured from Herat last week. Photo: Jalil Rezaei/EPA

Facts: The war in Afghanistan

In October 2001, a few weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the United States and other Western countries helped a coalition of warlords and insurgents seize power in Kabul.

The background was that al-Qaeda, which was behind the terrorist attack, had its base in the country then controlled by the Taliban.

The United States and NATO had more than 150,000 troops in Afghanistan at most. They finished their combat operations in 2014, and the last foreign soldiers will be out by September of this year.

Norway recently contributed just under 100 personnel to the NATO-led force. All Norwegian forces have now been withdrawn.

* 34 percent of Afghans lived below the poverty line in 2012, but the World Bank estimates that today it is 72 percent.

It is estimated that the war has killed at least 160,000 people since 2001, including at least 43,000 civilians.

*According to the United Nations, approximately 2.5 million Afghans are registered as refugees, but it is estimated that another 1.5 million Afghans live as unregistered refugees in Pakistan.

* In recent months, the Taliban have taken control of large parts of the Afghan countryside and border crossings with neighboring countries.

* In recent days, the Taliban also captured six provincial capitals and besieged several other capitals.

Source: NTB

NATO warning

NATO is deeply concerned about the Taliban’s advance in Afghanistan and describes the situation in the country as “difficult and demanding,” NTB reports.

“We share the Security Council’s deep concern about the high level of violence caused by the Taliban’s military offensive, including attacks on civilians and reports of other serious human rights abuses,” a NATO official said.

The acceleration of the Taliban’s military offensive is very worrying. A statement issued by the US State Department said that a negotiated peace is the only solution to this war.

note: Airstrikes by the Taliban and the government have forced at least 244,000 Afghans to flee their homes since May, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (OCHA).