The United States and the world are anxiously awaiting whether Donald Trump will try again in the White House.
NEW YORK (Netavision): There is a debate within the Republican Party about how important former President Donald Trump will be in the future.
In a recent measurement of CNN It turns out that there is a big split among the Republicans. But the poll also shows the strong position Trump enjoys within the party.
63% want Trump
The poll, conducted among Republicans and party sympathizers, showed that 63 percent of respondents want Trump to be the party leader, while 37 percent believe he should not lead the party.
As for whether Trump should run in the 2024 presidential election, and his chances of reclaiming the White House, there is a complete split within the party.
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Here, 51 percent of respondents said the party has a greater chance of winning the White House if Trump runs, while 49 percent think the party would have a greater chance of getting the president if they ran for another candidate. .
according to CNN That’s a big difference from a similar poll in 2019, when more than three-quarters of those polled believed Trump was the right man to lead the party to the White House.
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– And the character is gone
Trump’s strong position is due to the fact that the party has become a personal party. Any party characterized by the personal dominance of the leader. We see it among the electorate and in the party apparatus. Commenting on a CNN poll, US expert Hilmar Mejlde says the anti-Trump wing is small and weak.
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The poll also shows that there is significant discord within the party when you look at the Republican background.
While 69 percent of those without a college background think Trump should lead the party, only 49 percent of those with a college education think the same.
There is also broad agreement within the party that Trump was robbed of the election. As many as 6 in 10 say they support Trump, support him in that he was the real winner of the presidential election in 2020, and that belief in this is a very important part of identity and what it means to them to be a Republican today.
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Voters’ loyalty shifted to Trump
– Parties usually get rid of a losing presidential candidate. No American party, since Adlai Stevenson, has nominated a losing presidential candidate again after four years. But Republican voters’ loyalty has shifted to Trump rather than the party, says Mjelde, a senior fellow at the NORCE Research Center in Bergen and an expert on American politics.
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“There is also a lot to say that the entire evening series on Fox News is made up of Trump supporters,” says the American expert.
– Then the party’s political, cultural and geographical center of gravity shifted to the southern states over many decades. There we find a type of electorate that favors candidates like Trump and Trump. Southern states are Trump’s natural voter base.
– So it is not difficult to explain his continued popularity in the party, says Migildi.
The most ardent Republicans
The poll also raises the temperature of expectations towards next year’s midterm elections. Here, as many as 28 percent answered that they are very excited to vote in connection with next year’s congressional elections. This is a sharp increase from 2017, when only 18 percent said they were very excited about the midterm elections.
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When it comes to the 2022 election, 30 percent of Republicans say they are most enthusiastic, compared to 26 percent among Democrats.
The question now is what would happen if some heavyweight dared challenge Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Mjelde Nettavisen tells.
– DeSantis in Florida in particular. Many Democrats may have wanted to vote for Bernie Sanders again in 2020, but they chose a reasonable marriage with Biden. Likewise, we see many Republicans questioning whether DeSantis, for example, would be a better choice than Trump in 2024, US expert Hilmar McGildy tells Nettavisen.
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