The situation in Ukraine is becoming more and more conflict-ridden. Russia has stationed large forces on the country’s border. This Great fear of invasion.
The conflict in Ukraine is also contributing to the rise in oil prices. Dina Saltvet, chief analyst at Nordia, thinks that in the short term we will see an oil price of $ 100 a barrel.
– It has already risen above $ 99 a barrel, so there are only a few more cents left. He says the price will reach $ 100 a barrel today.
We have to go back to 2014 to find the price of $ 100 a barrel of oil. After this Falling prices.
Rystad Energy analyst Tore Guldbrandsøy hopes oil prices will reach 2014 levels soon.
– With the current uncertainty, the price will quickly reach $ 100. He says it can happen at any time.
Petrol prices are also rising
Basically, there are some opportunities to increase oil production in the short term. That is why oil prices are so high when we see a conflict getting worse.
– The whole world is dependent on oil, and still has to go a little further. Russia is one of the world’s most important oil exporters, and the world needs to get the energy we need. If we do not have enough oil, we will end up in rationing in an extreme situation, As in 1973Says Saltvet.
In particular, oil and gas pipelines could be destroyed in a military operation. Oil carriers may be intercepted or have to use more time-consuming routes.
Higher oil prices are good news for the Norwegian state because it signifies increased revenue. But for consumers, the price of fuel is rising too fast.
– It will be more expensive than petrol and diesel. Saltwood says refineries are paying more for crude oil.
Equinor follows closely
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia contributes to great uncertainty regarding oil and gas supplies. Along with the United States and Saudi Arabia, Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and exporter.
– This creates anxiety when a significant country like Russia faces problems in deliveries, says Saltvet.
Equinor has staff and operations in Russia and closely follows the situation.
– Our most important job is to ensure the safety of our staff there, says Ola Morton Anestad.
Equinor is concerned about the progress of Ukraine. The company was expecting a diplomatic solution.
– A conflict can have great consequences for people in the region. This could have repercussions for the global economy and the already crisis-ridden energy market, says Anestod.
Higher price after re-opening
Guldbrandsøy points out that there is a lot of tension over what sanctions could be brought about by the Ukraine conflict. On Tuesday, it was announced that Germany would not recognize Stream 2 gas pipeline to Russia.
– Both parties are really benefiting from the fact that there will be no sanctions on oil and gas. Europe has low gas reserves and requires gas from Russia. Oil prices are already high. But things can happen fast here. Stopping the approval process for the Stream 2 pipeline could be a start, he says.
Neither Saltwort nor Goldfrandso dared to say how much a barrel of oil would cost above $ 100.
But both are clear that the current oil price is also a result of the gradual over-opening of society after the epidemic.
– People travel more than ever before, and oil is widely used for transportation. While demand is rising, production is not increasing significantly, says Saltwade.
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