– It’s probably going to be a rather brutal hot summer.
This is what climate analyst Katherine Tranberg-Harsker at the Red Cross told Dagbladet.
to NRK’s Nyhetsmorgen She said on Tuesday that the outlook for summer makes the organization concerned about people’s lives and health.
The climate phenomenon La Niña in recent years has acted as a dampening effect on global warming. It is now gone and will be replaced with increasing probability by its El Niño counterpart.
Fear of El Niño phenomenon
The United Nations Meteorological Organization (WMO) now estimates that there is a 60 percent chance of an El Niño during July, and We ask the world to be prepared.
El Niño events can lead to more droughts in some parts of the world and more precipitation in others, but overall they increase the risk of significantly higher temperatures, Tranberg-Harsker says.
– Beat all records
In short, the El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena can be explained as follows, according to Tore Furevik Director at the Nansen Center:
- Winds in the Pacific Ocean blow mainly from east to west. Winds bring surface water to the west. In the east, cold water comes to the surface to replace the water that has blown west. The cold water helps maintain high air pressure in the east and low air pressure in the west, which is why it blows from east to west.
- If the winds in the west are abnormally strong, it is called a La Niña. This weather phenomenon causes Pacific Ocean temperatures to become abnormally cold, because more surface water is replaced by cooler water from the depths, and helps keep the global temperature down.
- But if the opposite happens, the west winds are weaker than usual, and the cold water does not reach the surface in the east to the same extent, and it becomes warmer in the Pacific Ocean than usual. This phenomenon is called El Niño.
– We’ve now had La Niña for nearly three years, and it’s been much cooler than normal in the Pacific Ocean. This has helped slow global warming. However, the past few years have been among the warmest ever measured. This clearly shows that global warming is completely dominating, Vourevik tells Dagbladet.
With El Niño appearing on top of global warming, next year all previous records for global average temperature are expected to be broken.
Very high temperatures
Furivek explains that Europe is not closely associated with weather phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. So he can’t say how El Niño will affect our summer.
– But since global warming is getting stronger, we see that the Mediterranean countries are getting drier and warmer, and everything indicates that the heat wave and drought that we witnessed last year will intensify. We are likely to see very high summer temperatures in southern Europe, as well as in other regions of the world, in the coming years, says Furivek.
The hottest summer ever in Europe
In recent years, heat waves have come earlier and earlier, and this year’s heat records for fall are already set in April in several places around the world.
In Europe, Spain, among other countries, has already experienced extreme heat. Here in April, 38.8 degrees was recorded.
– These are not normal temperatures, says climate analyst Tranberg Harsker.
In Algeria, the temperature reached 40 degrees, and it was already very hot in Morocco, Portugal, Asia and Canada.
In the hottest place, temperatures were 20 degrees higher than normal for this time of year, according to a climate analyst.
Sound the alarm about a record summer
During a heat wave, the temperature is high day and night.
Tranberg Hårsaker is now warning Norwegians considering going on holiday to more southerly regions this summer – particularly around the Mediterranean, and thinks we should be better at demonstrating ‘heat awareness’.
– It puts a lot of stress on our bodies and organs. This is especially true of young children, frail and chronically ill seniors — especially those with cardiovascular disease, she says.
Heat waves can lead to dehydration, overheating, and in the worst case scenario, heatstroke.
– It was a growing problem in Europe, you say.
It is important that you follow the weather forecast and adjust your activity level accordingly. We Norwegians are very happy in the sun and heat, but we are not as good in hot weather as we should be.
If you end up in a heatwave while on vacation, it’s important to take it seriously.
– If many outdoor activities are planned and one spends a lot of time in the sun, the risk of dehydration and heat exhaustion increases. This can make you feel bad. You probably shouldn’t go to the beach on the hottest day.
The climate analyst says that after the hot summer of 2003, which he estimates led to 72,000 deaths in Europe, measures were taken to prepare for the situation.
– You can see that the death toll has gone down, but as of last year about 16,000 people died from heat waves in Europe, you say.
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