February 4, 2023

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I will use myself more – E24

Svenska kraftnät believes that Swedish energy exports are expected to decline by 2027. The development is the same as in Norway. – If we consider them separately, this means that the prices are approaching the continental ones, says the analyst.

Illustrative photo of Swedish power lines.
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Electricity consumption in industry and the transport sector is expected to rise significantly in both Sweden and Norway as a result of the green transition.

Analyst Olaf Johan Botnen at Volue Insight.

Both countries are developing new electricity production that is lower than expected from the new consumption.

Sweden’s energy surplus is expected to diminish in the coming years, Svenska kraftnät estimates in a recent report. Short term market analysis For the period up to 2027. Sweden’s electricity exports are expected to drop to six TWh, just over a fifth of the current level.

In Norway, too, increased consumption will eat up surplus energy. Statnett recently estimated that Norway will run an energy deficit by 2027.

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– expect the same

– We expect roughly the same development, Olav Johan Botnen tells E24 about Svenska kraftnät’s analysis.

He is an analyst at Volue Insight, which does, among other things, energy market analytics. The company is part of Volue, which has energy company Arendals Fossekompani as its principal owner.

– The Swedes have big plans to electrify industry, especially in the North. It will reduce the surplus of energy, even if one is a little pessimistic and assumes that some projects will be delayed or will not come to fruition, says Botnin.

Particularly highlighting is Vattenfall, SSAB and LKAB’s Hybrit green steel production project. H2 Green Steel also plans to produce green steel, which requires a lot of energy.

– Each of these projects requires 6-10 TWh, so together they account for half of Sweden’s energy surplus, he says.

In addition, Northvolt’s battery plant in Skellefteå can require anywhere from 2 to 4 TWh, and Volvo and Northvolt have a battery project in southern Sweden north of Gothenburg, he notes.

Several large projects are underway.

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A sharp decline in exports is expected

Sweden’s energy consumption will increase from 144 TWh per year to 188 TWh until 2027, according to Svenska kraftnät analysis. This is due to the increased use of electricity in transportation and large industrial projects in northern Sweden.

Sweden is today a significant exporter of electricity, exporting 28 TWh in a normal year. But this will likely drop to just six TWh by 2027, Svenska kraftnät estimates.

“Certainly electricity production is also increasing, but not by as much,” Svenska kraftnät wrote in the analysis.

Norway’s energy surplus will also decline in the future, Svenska kraftnät estimates. This is in line with the Norwegian company Statnett Analytics. Norway currently has a surplus of about 15 TWh in a normal year.

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“Norway’s energy balance also worsens over the analysis period, due to electricity consumption increasing to a greater extent than added production,” Svenska Kraftnat writes.

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– Closer to European prices

Lower energy surpluses in Norway and Sweden also mean higher net electricity import risks in certain years.

What could that mean for prices?

– If we look at it in isolation, this means that prices will approach continental prices wherever they are. You have to import more from the continent, says Botnin, rather than from the East as was done before and where it was often cheaper.

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Consumption should be reduced

If the energy surplus decreases, it will become clear that not all players will get the power they want, says the representative of the European Parliament, Sophie Marhaug (Rudette).

– Perhaps you should prioritize more strictly between who will have access to power, Marhaug tells E24.

She has been critical of shelf electrification, advocating investment in energy efficiency and the development of geothermal and solar energy.

– We must reduce consumption and release energy, and not just increase it, as you say.

– Red wants Reducing electricity trade With abroad, but is it wise for Norway and Sweden to face certain years as net importers of electricity?

– What is more dangerous for us is that Sweden is also struggling to secure enough power. Red is for energy exchange with Sweden, which we’ve had for a long time. But this suggests that one should prioritize more strictly and not say yes to all plans, and that one should reduce energy consumption wherever possible. Monoculture, solar and geothermal energy are the things that could be most profitable in the years leading up to 2027, says Marhaug.

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– This doesn’t last forever

Prices in Europe have skyrocketed in the past year. But they are likely to be mitigated over time, and that could be an advantage for Norway, Botnin believes.

– We are in a special situation where Europe needs gas and energy now. But this does not last forever. Gas from Putin is gradually being replaced by increased LNG imports, and in addition, there is a large-scale development of renewable energy which will also reduce the need for gas, says Putin.

He noted that Norway will be able to have periods of cheap electricity imports when the green transition gradually accelerates.

– The continent has huge offshore wind plans, which will produce large energy surpluses in periods. England, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands are betting big at the same time. This can provide periods with great opportunities for reasonable imports and price pressure, says Botnin.

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– Surplus wind and offshore solar energy has only one home, and that is southern Norway. No other country has hydropower that they can hold like Norway. Then it can become as fast as 5,000 megawatts of maximum production and at a very low price for a few hours, he says.

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I think the Nordic energy exports will decline

Svenska kraftnät believes that the Nordic countries will retain their surplus power in the future, as Finland’s export capacity is expected to increase. The company expects the North to be a net exporter of electricity until 2027, but regular exports will drop from 38 TWh to 13 TWh.

According to the company, given the adverse weather conditions, the region still faces the risk of having to import net electricity in 2026 and 2027.

Botnin believes Norway can handle a situation with potential net imports to the Nordic countries, but believes upgrades are needed to affect Norway’s hydroelectric power plants.

– For Norway, it’s not a big deal. We can take advantage of lower price hours when neighboring countries produce a lot. We can export at full capacity during the high price hours until the cables are full and thus avoid the high price import on the continent. But to capitalize on that, we need more projects to ramp up the impact at hydroelectric power plants, he says.

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The Norwegian energy industry has announced that some energy upgrades have been put on hold due to a new tax on higher energy prices. The government said the tax is temporary and will last until 2025.

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More British exports await

By 2027, Svenska kraftnät expects Denmark and Norway to import more foreign cable from the UK.

“This can be explained by the fact that onshore and offshore wind power as well as solar power are largely developed in the UK,” the company writes.

They believe that electricity prices in Britain will also fall.

Svenska kraftnät writes: “In Great Britain, the price fell by approximately 64 percent over the analysis period, as a result of which links with Denmark and Norway are moving from import to export.”

– It is true that offshore winds in Europe will help keep prices down, especially in winter when consumption is low at night and on weekends. In addition, solar energy lowers prices during the day and especially in the summer, says Botnin.

By 2030, offshore winds will also be present in the North region, Botnin believes. among other things Fattenful most dangerous Just before Christmas he planned an offshore wind project on the Finnish west coast worth NOK 20-30 billion. The 1,300-megawatt power plant could provide about five terawatt-hours of electricity annually from the early 2000s.

The North will receive scarce supplies in the late 2020s and early 2030s. But then there will be almost a blast of offshore wind, so that we’ll have a surplus of capacity again if the plans go through, Botnin says.