May 19, 2022

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In May, something might happen that could benefit Russia:

In May, something might happen that could benefit Russia:

Air siren sounds can be heard in all major cities of Ukraine on Monday night. Many There were airstrikes in places.

In the last 24 hours, the Russians have tried in the Donbass area, but have been somewhat repulsed. And in Kharkiv, Tom Rochet, head of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College and head of their research team in Ukraine, tells TV2 that fighting has resumed.

There was talk last week that the Russians were mobilizing for a new major offensive.

– Is this the attack that is going on now?

– The Russians are still reorganizing groups in connection with the withdrawal from the north. They usually need some more time to get into combat mode. It’s a matter of compensating for the losses, the victims of depreciation and tears need to be recovered, and if you want to get back on track, you need to spend some time, Rochet says.

According to IRW (Institute for the Study of War), there were fierce battles in Mariupol this weekend. Ukrainian forces are preparing here They call it the final blow.

– Old equipment

Rochett believes that those who are now being sent to Ukraine from Russia are at first inexperienced.

– The Russians now filling up quickly with staff and supplies. He says most of the equipment is old, and the players are somewhat untrained.

Rochett hopes that the continuation of the military operation we now see in Ukraine will maintain momentum.

– But they will need more time to prepare for the big attack, he says.

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Dries in May

“We will see in the end if this season can help the Russian forces,” Rochett said.

– The efforts of the Ukrainians are interesting. They drove the Russians out of the north, and their retreat was strong. At the same time, he says the situation will become more challenging when the field in the east dries up in early May.

He pointed out that it was difficult to drive military vehicles here as the vast territory had been muddy so far. During the invasion, the Russians still relied on roads and other infrastructure.

– In May, it dries up so they can drive off the roads. He says it will be challenging for Ukrainians because they will lose some of their natural defenses.

With more opportunities to drive vehicles, the Russians could change strategy.

– They can quickly and quickly turn into a maneuver battle that can surround the enemy, and there firepower and speed will be used more and more as a tool, he says.

The Russians are recruiting

Rochett makes it clear that there is no sign that the Russians are going to give up.

– There is no reason to believe that the Russians are going to give up, we see in the recruitment. The Russians are now trying to recruit tens of thousands of soldiers into their troops, he says.

Røseth’s colleague, Lt. Col. Keer Hegen Carlson, believes the Russians are now advancing.

– They can achieve anything in the future, they can gather enough troops to defeat Ukraine in Tombas. We see what they are trying to do now, he says.

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