US President Joe Biden, who will turn 80 this fall, promised the American people “strong, steady, and stable leadership” during the campaign against Donald Trump in 2020. Many experts at the time assumed Biden’s advancing age implied that he could without much Effort to abandon the baton after only one term in four years in the White House.
Two years later, however, there is a growing turmoil within the DEP as to what will happen in two years – when Americans will elect the head of state again.
Biden himself has expressed that he will run for re-election. Most recently, last week, the White House confirmed Biden’s re-election.
Spokesperson Karen-Jean-Pierre recently stated: Twitter.
As stated by many of Biden’s close allies Washington Post They are convinced that Biden will try to win a new term in the White House.
The online newspaper spoke to four Norwegian-American experts and asked if they thought Biden would run for re-election in 2024.
– I don’t think there will be clarification until after the by-elections this fall. I think Biden will look into it and assess his health. Historian and author Hans Olaf Lahloum tells Nettavisen that he may want to run for re-election, but given his advanced age, that may be unrealistic.
Lahoum says it is not appropriate for an incumbent US president to announce prematurely that he will not run for re-election.
When Gerald Ford stood there in August 1974 as the new president in a special position after the Watergate scandal, he had the thought of declaring at once that it was not appropriate to run for the next election, and that he would only serve the term of the presidency. 2.5 years. But Ford was highly discouraged from doing so, as he would then be left as a “lame duck”. The moment you schedule your departure, you undermine your importance at the local level and when you meet with foreign heads of state, says Lahoum.
Then Vice President Gerald Ford took over as President of the United States when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. Ford is the only American president who has not won a presidential election. He ran as the Republican presidential candidate in 1976 after winning the nomination battle against Ronald Reagan, but lost the presidential election by a narrow margin to Democrat Jimmy Carter.
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He says to Lahoum he does not want to completely rule out that Biden may actually seek reelection.
It is not excluded that Biden will ask again. He may decide to do so. He expired applying for re-election at age 82 for a four-year term. But the United States is different from Norway, says Lahoum, and notes that there is a tradition of politicians aging into heavy positions in the United States.
– In the Senate, there is a large group that is larger than Biden, and they sit for six years, says Lahoum.
Prominent Senators Mitch McConnell and Bernie Sanders are 80 years old. They are the oldest group of politicians in the Senate along with Patrick Leahy (82), Jim Einhove (87), Richard Shelby (87), Chuck Grassley (88) and Dianne Feinstein (88).
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Tactical lame duck game
Sven Melby, a senior researcher at the Department of Defense Studies, believes Biden will finally announce that he is retiring after just one term in the White House. Melby believes Biden will wait as long as he makes a final announcement to avoid a “lame duck” presence in the long run. The term “lame duck” is used for outgoing leaders with seemingly limited power.
Biden says he will seek re-election. But I’ve always had a feeling that Biden is playing a tactical game, Melby tells Nettavisen, and suggests he will seek reelection so as not to weaken his political weight in the period for which he is already elected.
But there may be those who think it’s an old way of thinking, and that Biden should free the party from the issue of re-election, he says and refers to the “uprising” of some votes in the Democratic Parity Party.
Civita’s adviser, Eric Locke, says there are two main reasons why more Democrats are calling for clarity and questioning their president’s mental ability to rule the country for another four years after the 2024 presidential election.
– The first is that they see age as distinguishing Biden. If you are 80 years old, do not try to be the President of the United States. It’s very simple. And you can quote me on that, Luke tells Nettavizen.
Even if you are 80 years old in good health, your cognitive abilities will still weaken with age. It’s not healthy if you’re president of the United States, says Locke.
– The second it is not very popular. Biden is not a strong card for Democrats now. Had Biden had such a high degree of support (good polls, editor’s note), these proposals from Democrats wouldn’t have come now, Locke says.
On the average daily measurement of the site FiveThirtyEight Biden had 39.8 percent support on June 20 – that’s 517 days into the presidency. Donald Trump had 42.6 percent support after the same number of days in the White House. Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton had 46.6 percent, 70.3 percent and 51 percent, respectively, after the same number of days.
I don’t think Biden will ask again because it’s an irresponsible act due to his age. And I think there will be clarification no later than a year before the election, Locke says.
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Unpopular and old
NORCE Research Senior Researcher Hilmar McGildy believes Biden might normally run for re-election under other circumstances.
I usually say “yes”. But the challenge for Biden is age, that he is unpopular, that the United States is in many economic and foreign policy crises and that democracy is under pressure. Megildy tells Netavisen that the United States needs a president in good shape.
As is known, the United States suffers from inflation and persistent geopolitical crises with both Russia and China, not least of which is massive polarization at home.
A possible similarity here is Lyndon Johnson. He did not run for re-election in 1968, because he was also too weak politically. Megildi says he has had major health problems.
Then-Vice President Johnson was sworn in as the new President of the United States aboard Air Force One after the assassination of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. He won his first presidential election in 1964 by a large margin, but chose to abstain from running for re-election in 1968.
Biden will turn 86 at the end of the second term. So voters will also be wondering what Biden will be like in 5 years, not just what his health will be like in 2024. You could put it this way: It’s not easy to see how 82-year-old Biden could run for re-election. It’s also not easy to see how he can’t stand, because the party lacks a clear successor, says Migildi.
– One can easily imagine that he will be re-elected, and then leave the post of President Kamala Harris (Vice President) a little in his second term. But this presupposes that he is in a position to win in 2024, says Meldy.
Will Trump run in 2024?
In American politics, both Democrats and Republicans hold their own nomination elections to determine who is nominated as the party’s presidential candidate. Nomination elections begin at the beginning of the election year.
Lahoum believes that Biden’s further ambitions should be clarified for some time before the nomination elections at the beginning of 2024.
Both sides have their eyes set on the congressional elections, but during the first half of 2023 I think there will be clarification on whether or not Biden and Trump will run. It is about practical matters, says Lahoum, such as having the opportunity for other candidates to register in the election campaign for the nomination elections.
How will the dynamics between Trump and Biden affect each other’s decision to run in the presidential elections?
If Biden announces that he will run for re-election, I think it is very likely that Trump will do the same. If Trump announces he will run for reelection, I’m not sure how that will affect Biden’s decision. Trump doesn’t hold any significant positions right now, and he has this congressional investigation hanging over him, says Lahoum.
Trump is more controversial in the party than you could possibly imagine, but it’s still hard to get around him with the model you have in the United States in the nomination election, he said.
It wouldn’t be easy for anyone to defeat him in a possible Republican nomination battle. Trump is very popular among Republicans. I really think everything indicates that Trump wants to calm down again. But there are several factors that make him a bit hesitant, says Lahoum, and point to potential health challenges due to aging and the ongoing congressional investigation process.
Trump will turn 78 a few months before the 2024 presidential election.
However, Melby is not confident that Trump will run for re-election in 2024.
As a rule, when the incumbent president loses an election, you are already done with politics. However, Trump has succeeded in staying partly on a lie. Melby says, I think Trump is keeping the possibility open for re-election to be able to have a political platform, but also to raise money for a reserve if needed for a future court settlement.
I also think there are people in the Republican Party who will be able to navigate and grab the Trump nomination. Melby says that Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida) is very similar to Trump in politics, but he has a slightly different personality trait, and he doesn’t have that heft that Swelling does.
Frustration among Democrats
More and more Democrats have recently taken to the media and indicated that it is time for a change of party leadership in 2024, and are calling for some form of clarification from Biden himself on whether or not he should run.
In a long article in New York times There were several prominent Democratic politicians who questioned the president’s mental ability and whether he was the right person to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.
Dozens of Democrats interviewed by the newspaper feared that it might hurt the party if Biden ran for re-election in 2024. Many probably assumed there was a common understanding that Biden would only sit for one term.
– They might be nervous that he’s going to change his mind. It’s happened before. Once you’re in that situation, you think it’s fun to keep going. But there may also have been things going on internally in the party that drew criticism of Biden, Locke says.
“I think there is some frustration within the party that there is no strong leadership and that this is due to Biden’s age,” Melby says.
Biden will probably be doing well internally in the administration, but he’s clearly going to be 80 soon. A lot of politics is governed by how things look, and that just doesn’t look good. As he says, I think Biden will realize that.
– Biden closes the natural competition for the nomination in the party by not coming out with a clarification. I think a lot will be clear when the congressional elections are over this fall. Then the Democrats will see what political towers they have to face in Congress after the election, and then Biden and the Democrats might realize that you have to join forces that are more dynamic and energetic in their approach, he says. Melby.
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