Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB, is now warning the central bank. She fears that a very strong interest rate medicine will push the economy into an unnecessary deflation.
– I hope and believe that the Norges Bank will keep its cool and raise the interest rate by 0.25 percentage point. If they slow down too hard, says chief economist Kjersti Haugland, we could get an unnecessary sharp slowdown that could shrink the Norwegian economy.
She points out that raising interest rates from the central bank has a quick impact on household wallets, because almost everyone has loans at floating rates.
During the financial crisis and epidemic, the central bank set lowest Interest rates corresponding to several normal jumps in interest rates. We have to go back to the summer of 2002 to find out the last time Norges raised its key rate with more than 0.25 percentage point At the same rate meeting.
- On Sunday afternoon, 10 economists responded to a Bloomberg News poll. 8 out of 10 economists expect Norges Bank to raise its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage point on Thursday of this week.
- 2 out of 10 believe in a double jump in the interest rate.
- Also Norway statistics A jump in the main policy rate is expected 0.5 percentage point.
There’s no reason to devise more shock drugs to beat inflation, we’re not in that position, says Hoagland, and Refers to the United States.
The DNB now expects increases at every interest rate meeting through March of next year, and another in June, with a key interest rate of 2.75 at the end of June 2023. If the forecast turns out to be correct, that could mean a 4.25 percent mortgage interest rate next summer.
But Elizabeth Holvik, chief economist at Sparebank1-Gruppen, thinks it is urgent for Norges to raise rates sharply now.
It means the central bank smaller It should raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage point this week, particularly due to the hot labor market.
A lot happens in a short time, and it boils down a bit in the Norwegian economy, and especially in the labor market. If you raise a lot a little more now, you probably won’t have to engage as much later on, Holvik says.
– I think they should at least raise the interest rate by 0.5 percentage point. This is because it takes time for an interest rate change to have an effect on the economy. The risk is that if you go too slowly, you may have to put up with more effort later, she says.
Jan Ludvig Andreassen of Eika Group thinks Norges Bank should keep rates quiet for now, but thinks rates will rise by “a quarter”.
At the rate meeting now before the summer, the Norges Bank has no reason to raise rates. But he says it will likely rise by a quarter of a percentage point.
We have some new problems that the old medicines don’t work on well. Almost like the flu vaccine against corona. Today’s challenges are related to the lack of labor migration and the lack of births. He says the lack of input factors doesn’t even help him to raise interest rates.
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