After surging on the first trading day of the year, the Oslo Poor’s Index rose 0.6 percent in the opening minutes on Tuesday. The spot price of burnt crude oil rose slightly to around $87 a barrel.
Commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB sees an average price of more than $100 for oil in 2023. Last year, the average price was $99.9.
– Chinese demand is likely to rise sharply in line with the reopening, while demand in non-OECD countries will continue to rise. Right now, oil seems absurdly cheap, Schildrup wrote in a note.
Something you hardly see
Schildrup points out that oil is now cheaper than alternative energy sources such as natural gas and coal.
– That’s something you never see. Childrup writes that the energy market will work hard to consume more cheap oil and less expensive (natural gas and coal).
Schildrup made this estimate recognizing that there were strong headwinds in the global economy. Fear of a severe recession as a result of inflation and rising interest rates has made many suspicious of oil and other raw materials, but Shieldrup is unable to share the concern.
– In general for 2023, we are looking forward to a market in which we will face significant losses in fossil energy supplies from Russia, while oil demand is expected to pick up again, Schildrup wrote.
– He reached the top
DNB Markets dare not be pessimistic about the demand for the world’s most important commodity. Chief economist Kjersti Haugland wrote in a morning report that the brokerage firm expects an average oil price of $105 in 2023.
– It seems that the wave of infections in China has now reached its peak in some cities, and when the measures and fear subside, daily life can return to normal. Haugland writes that in 2023 China’s economy, and therefore also the country’s demand for raw materials, is likely to recover significantly again.
However, the increasing demand for raw materials also means an increase in inflationary impulses. DNB Markets notes that higher oil prices will help mitigate the decline in inflation in Western countries.
Kjersti Haugland, Chief Economist at DNB. (Photo: Michaela Berg)
On the other hand, European gas prices have fallen sharply from last year’s absurd levels. According to the Dutch benchmark TTF, gas prices are now at their lowest since the war broke out in February 2022, but they are still well above historical levels.
Hoagland notes that gas inventories have filled to the limit after a combination of abnormally warm weather in late fall and a significant drop in production from energy-intensive companies.
So one is in a better position than feared to deal with the winter in the absence of Russian gas supplies. At the start of 2023, weather conditions are still playing catch-up, Hoagland writes.
Ascension in Asia
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange started Tuesday lower, but after two hours of trading it turned around and the Hang Seng Index returned above the 20,000 level for the first time since the end of August. Since bottoming out just two months ago, the main index is up more than 37 percent.
Investors are trying to interpret preliminary activity reports from China for the month of December. This is weak, as expected.
The PMI of Caixin, where the majority of small and medium-sized private industrial firms are located, fell from 49.4 in November to 49 in December.
“The combination of repeated waves of virus infections, a deepening global recession and persistent weakness in the real estate sector suggests that the economy is likely to be weak in the coming months,” Capital Economics wrote in a report.
Wall Street closed on Monday, but on Tuesday futures are pointing to a slight price rally. Investors are now preparing themselves, among other things, the minutes of the latest US central bank rate meeting, which will be published on Wednesday evening, Norwegian time. (Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and/or our suppliers. We’d like you to share our statuses using links that lead directly to our pages. Reproduction or other use of all or part of the Content may be made only with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional terms look here.
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