October 3, 2022

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It can bring a million soldiers - VG

Russia prepares laws before potential mobilization – VG

What advice is he getting? Russian President Vladimir Putin whispers in the ear of Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, during a military exercise two weeks ago. Far left, Defense Minister Serge Sjogo.

The Russian National Assembly is preparing laws that will stiffen penalties for crimes such as desertion or refusal of orders, if full mobilization is adopted.

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The law has not been definitively adopted, but it may facilitate Russian mobilization.

Currently, the invasion of Ukraine has been defined as a “special operation”. But President Vladimir Putin has recently come under pressure to declare large-scale war and mobilize.

Horror scenario: Putin under pressure: He can bring in a million soldiers

On Tuesday, the Russian parliament passed a bill using the terms “mobilization” and “martial law,” Komsomolsky Pravda reported. The Senate – the Federation Council – may approve it tomorrow. Then President Vladimir Putin will sign it into law.

There is speculation as to whether this could be the first step toward Putin choosing to run a full mobilization, since Russia lacks soldiers in the Ukraine war.

The new law provides for severe penalties, among other things, for those who refuse to carry out orders and those who allow themselves to be arrested voluntarily.

According to the bill, refusing to carry out orders in an armed conflict will result in a sentence of up to five years in prison, plundering will result in up to 15 years in prison and those who voluntarily allow themselves to be arrested are at risk from three to ten years in prison, writes Komsomolskaya Pravda.

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RIA Novosti He writes that the new law will be able to introduce the terms “mobilization” and “martial law” into the penal code.

Abandonment or non-attendance is punishable by imprisonment for five to ten years, the text of the law says, RIA Novosti writes. Those who refuse to carry out orders can be sentenced to five years in prison, those who plunder can get 15 years and those who voluntarily allow themselves to be captured can get three to ten years in prison.

Prepare the ground

This is a clear sign that they are paving the way for mobilization. This is the legislation that regulates troops during mobilization, but can also be applied to those soldiers who are already serving, Tom Rosth, Director of Intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy.

He believes that there are particularly severe penalties for desertion, voluntary surrender and destruction of military materiel, which will come into force quickly. There have been many examples of all this in recent weeks.

The fact that terms such as “martial law” and “mobilization” are used are clear signs. The Russian General Staff had a mobilization on the drawing board for a long time, but politically it was considered too risky. But it was based on voluntary mobilization, but that didn’t last, says Rosth.

Despite the setbacks that Russia experienced in Kharkiv, Kherson and Donbass, among others, it was believed that more was still needed before such drastic steps could be considered.

– If this is adopted, it will take some time before we see the effect, perhaps not until after Christmas. The reason is that if it moves, the soldiers must be trained in active war units, which must then fit into the military structure. This will improve the situation of the crew, but there is also a shortage of officers.

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Putin needs soldiers

Reuters summarizes it because the bill tightens penalties for a range of offenses such as desertion, damage to military property, and insubordination if committed during military mobilization or combat situations.

The bill, which was passed in its second and third reading on Tuesday by the lower house of parliament, the Duma, comes amid debate in Russia about possible mobilization, a move that could dramatically escalate conflict in Ukraine.

– Until today, the terms “mobilization” or “combat operations” are not included in the Russian criminal code, Pavel Chekhov, president of the law firm Agora, tells Reuters. He represented a number of soldiers who refused to carry out orders.

– It’s hard to say what this means, but there’s no doubt that Putin needs soldiers, says war researcher Illmarie Kehko at the Alexandre Institute for VG.

– Putin recently said that Russia should at least take Donbass, and now we hear that Ukraine has captured a village in Luhansk, which is part of Donbass. Maybe he should have ordered packing. remains to be seen.

After the Russian forces Paid to fly in Kharkiv in the Northand became drained over a long period of time in Kherson in the southThere are also reports of attacks against the most important war targets of the Russians: Luhansk and Donetsk.

The humiliating withdrawal from Kharkiv led to Putin’s regime faces criticism on state television in a whole new way.

There is a question whether Russia will be able to win the war, whether the whole process is based on a false premise, and it shows that in order to gain the support of the Russian population, victory on the battlefield is required.

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There are also a number of pro-Kremlin promoters who are asking Putin to use much harsher means in the war.

The map below shows the most important front lines at the moment:

The Russian politician who called for the mobilization last week is Gennady Zyuganov. He said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a real war, not a “special operation”, The Insider reportsan independent news website that receives support from the European Commission.

How is a special military operation different from war? You can stop the military operation at any time. The leader of the Russian Communist Party said that the war cannot be stopped, it ends either in victory or in defeat.

Then he called for full mobilization:

I lead you to the idea that there is a war going on and we have no right to lose it. Don’t panic now. We need a complete mobilization of the country, Zyuganov said.

Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was asked on Monday last week whether the mobilization was important.

– This is a question for the Ministry of Defense, Peskov answered, according to Izvestia.