Many warn the Russian invasion in the new year. But the political development in Ukraine goes against Russia’s wishes and increases the cost of the Russian invasion significantly.
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Since the annexation of Crimea, Russia has created a more hostile and Protestant Ukraine. This changes the conditions for Russian influence in Ukraine, and will make Russia think twice about military escalation.
Russian Troop movements to the Ukrainian border Leaders in Ukraine and NATO countries to hold their breath. Several warn Russian invasion in the new year. But the political development in Ukraine goes against Russia’s wishes and increases the cost of the Russian invasion significantly.
The roots of mistrust of Russia go back to the Ukrainian Revolution. In 2013, then-President Yanukovych put the fully negotiated EU agreement in the drawer and signaled increased cooperation with Russia. It will cost the president dearly.
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Ukrainians took to The streets demanded the resignation of the President of the Republic. Independence Square in Kiev was an expression of pro-European currents, mixed with radical and moderate ideas about the Ukrainian nation.
What changed the Ukrainian revolution? Russia has gone from being a friend to being an adversary. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and has since been supporting separatists in the east. At the same time, extensive Russian information and disinformation campaigns seek to weaken the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government. Since 2014, the Ukrainians confidence in Russia And the Russian media host to the breaking point. Customs union support with Russia has collapsed. Public institutions live under constant pressure to prove their loyalty to the Ukrainian state.
russifisering . removal Ukraine. Ukraine is a multiethnic country. late as in In 2012, more than 30 percent of Ukrainians considered themselves Russian or with a mixed Ukrainian-Russian identity.. In 2017, the share fell to less than 20 percent. The proportion of those who consider themselves Ukrainians increased in turn.
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The issue of language has an identity-building effect. Even Russian-speaking Ukrainians increasingly consider Ukrainian their mother tongue. The status of the Ukrainian language increased. In libraries, contemporary literature is in the Ukrainian language, and the Russian part is largely reduced to some Russian classics. Ukrainian is also the result of deliberate policies, as language laws and the removal of Russian TV channels have led to increased use of the Ukrainian language.
select many With the Ukrainian state, fewer emphasize Ukraine as an East Slavic state. As noted by Canadian-Ukrainian scholar Dominic Ariel, “Ukraine is becoming more Ukrainian.” The split between the regional province of Western Ukraine and the pro-Russian Eastern Ukraine moved further east. Even in government-controlled eastern Ukraine – on the separatist border – the majority now identify themselves as Ukrainians. Traditionally, these are regions that have strong connections to Russia.
Since 2014, support for the Russian regime and Russia as identity markers has declined sharply. In parallel, Ukraine is looking to the West. Russian policy reinforces enemy images of Russia, and Europe reinforces its role as a guide. Explanatory enough: After the revolution, the EU agreement was signed almost immediately.
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in Ukraine The official policy now applies to the European Union. Desire for NATO integration increasingly in practice. Soviet-backed officers are being replaced by younger, more NATO-friendly, English-speaking and experienced officers. Educated in the United States and other NATO countries. earth like Britain and the United States train Ukrainian soldiers and arms supplies.
But there are clouds looming. The positivity of Europe and the United States coexists with the feeling of being alone against Russia. Russia supports the separatists in the east, the forces on the border create insecurity. Pro-Russian narratives – mixed with disinformation – are part of the media landscape, albeit to an increasingly lesser degree. This Ukraine and the country’s military must face every day. The prevailing opinion is that the Russian war in Ukraine is only an expression of Russian aggressive intentions, but that Russian goals are at least aggressive towards countries using covert non-military means.
in Western Europe The threat picture is less serious. Russia is a security challenge and competition. But few of them consider the country an enemy. Different perceptions of threats sometimes make Ukrainians feel that support from Western Europe and the United States is not enough.
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So where is Ukraine heading? Will pro-European national development continue? Success or failure depends on the ability to reform over time, and increase economic growth. It will also be important for Europe and the United States to be able to provide military support and political and economic reform.
Ukraine has been militarily strengthened since 2014. The Ukraine-European identity project removes the state from the Russian realm of ideas. The continuation of Russia’s aggressive policy would reinforce this development. Ukrainians’ confidence in Russia plummeted. The few supporters who remained in Ukraine are fewer and more pressured than at any time since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russia created Ukraine is more hostile and pro-European. Thus, the invasion will be more difficult and more unpopular cost than before. This is what the Kremlin regime painfully realizes. This has made military escalation the absolute last resort in the Kremlin’s toolbox in Ukraine.
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