May 9 is a holiday in Russia, when people celebrate the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Victory Day, as it is called in Russia, is a symbolic day for Russians and is celebrated, among other things, with a large military parade on Red Square in Moscow.
This year, the world is holding its breath ahead of Russia’s Victory Day. Many experts have expressed concern about whether President Vladimir Putin will declare war on Ukraine on this date.
But a Moscow-based journalist will not be popular in Russia Camille Galeev.
Russia has consistently referred to the invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation,” and several Western countries are now warning Putin not to stray from the logic of special operations and a declaration of war.
– If he declares war, other laws will come into effect, you can call up recruits, reservists and start mobilizing. It can be very uncomfortable, because there is one The risk of escalating sharplysays Lieutenant Colonel and Instructor of Military Strategy at the Swedish Defense College, Joachim Pasekevi.
Declaring war would be a “fatal mistake” that could lead to a revolution, according to Galiev.
– At the moment I do not think that there is any possibility of a “successful” mass uprising in Russia. But if Putin starts mobilizing the masses, it will skyrocket. There will be many militants who have an immediate self-interest in ruling the regime, he says in an interview with Sky News.
An analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a Russian group that monitors the military, believes a general mobilization will have serious consequences for the president.
– He says there is a big risk that popularity will drop sharply Radio Europe.
But the Russian government shrugs off the speculation, saying the allegations of war are nonsense.
You can declare victory
Many experts doubt that Russia will declare war because the political stakes are high. So some are asking about Putin Planning to declare victory on May 9.
– it is very interesting. The two scenarios are possible, but diametrically opposed, senior researcher Tor Bokvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment recently told NTB.
However, it is difficult to determine the most likely alternative, according to Bokvall.
– I think most things can happen. Putin, on the one hand, could choose to appear as a peace dove and announce his willingness to negotiate Ukraine’s inedible demands, then try to portray Ukraine as warlords who will not negotiate. On the other hand, he can declare war and begin to mobilize the whole of Russian society, a kind of new patriotic war to stick to the Russians’ favorite story. May 9th may be a good symbolic date for this new patriotic war, Lieutenant Colonel of the Military School Bal Yedstepo told the news agency.
“Coffee trailblazer. Certified pop culture lover. Infuriatingly humble gamer.”