While the Afghan government army lays down its weapons and flees, the Taliban constantly occupy new cities. The military expert explains that the danger of complete collapse is imminent.
District after district fell, but until last week, the Taliban’s advance was primarily targeting rural areas, with a move away from cities.
Then came a quick turn: nine provincial capitals were conquered, four more were trapped and on the verge of falling. The Taliban now controls more than 60 percent of Afghanistan.
between cities there The Taliban quickly gained the upper hand in the major cities Like Kunduz and Kandahar. The news came, on Wednesday evening, that Faizabad, the capital of Badakhshan province in northern Afghanistan, is also under the control of the Taliban.
Mazar-i-Sharif, where the Norwegian Armed Forces have had a strong military presence for a long time, is among the major cities that could fall at any time.
The Taliban’s victories went faster than expected. It strengthens the psychological factor of war, and increases the risk of mass collapse among government forces, explains Navy Captain Thomas Slinsvik, Senior Instructor of Strategy and Doctrine at the Norwegian Defense College.
the last: The Taliban can encircle the Afghan capital, Kabul, within 30 days, and may be able to capture the city within 90 days. A US military official told Reuters, citing an intelligence report.
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Slinsvik points out that the Taliban should not be seen as a guerrilla force, but rather as an ordinary army using guerrilla tactics.
On paper, the Afghan army is strong enough to defend itself against the Taliban. Slinsvik explains that he got used to having a security network through the presence of NATO, which created a framework for the fight against the Taliban.
The Taliban, for its part, has a more established structure and more combative soldiers. They have morale and motivation on their side. It doesn’t help the government army get better gear, if the soldiers don’t want to fight, he continues.
He compares Slinsvik to the Iraqi government army, which recklessly fled Mosul when ISIS fighters seized the city in 2014. Now something similar is happening in parts of Afghanistan.
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The military expert believes that the Taliban has been able to strategize for a long time, since then US withdrawal, known for a long time.
The Taliban took over areas in northern Afghanistan where they had no control the last time they seized power in the country. The big question now is whether there is a downward spiral toward total collapse, or whether there is stability in effective and lasting resistance in some areas, says Slensvik.
Slinsvik warns of the shock effect of the rapid advance, which makes government soldiers fear for their families’ future and lose faith in victory. The same was noted by PRIO researcher and Afghan expert Christian Berg Harpviken.
The attack was a shock. They knew the Taliban would take over new territories, but that would happen very quickly, and would target large and important cities, they didn’t think, says Harpviken.
Free rent promise
He points out that a large part of the government army had broken in and laid down their arms against the promise of free rent. There are also more enthusiastic units, not least among the special forces, Harpviken explains.
Afghan and American combat aircraft tried to defend the provincial capitals, and the bombing of densely populated areas from the air killed many civilians.
It will be crucial if the United States continues to provide air support to the government’s military. This will make the Taliban advance militarily more difficult. But at the same time, it will mean more Afghan civilians will be killed, which in turn will increase support for the Taliban, Harpviken points out.
Taliban Last week, the capital, Kabul, was rocked by two violent attacksWhere terrorist bombs, assassinations and warriors who fought to the death were among the tools.
President Ashraf Ghani had to become a local warlord to gain support in several cities. But these militias are accused of assaulting the people, Describe Foreign Policy.
Ghani flew from Kabul to Mazar-i-Sharif on Wednesday to support government forces there.
NATO is deeply concerned about the Taliban’s advance in Afghanistan and describes the situation in the country as “difficult and demanding,” NTB reports.
“We share the Security Council’s deep concern about the high level of violence caused by the Taliban’s military offensive, including attacks on civilians and reports of other serious human rights abuses,” a NATO official said.
The acceleration of the Taliban’s military offensive is very worrying. A statement issued by the US State Department said that a negotiated peace is the only solution to this war.
note: Airstrikes by the Taliban and the government have forced at least 244,000 Afghans to flee their homes since May, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (OCHA).
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