Earlier in October, Belarus announced that it was strengthening its military cooperation with Russia by deploying a joint border force.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko justified the decision by the fact that, apparently, Ukraine planned to launch an attack on Belarusian territory. Therefore, the task of Russian soldiers is only to “strengthen the protection and defense of the borders.”
Experts are now working confused about the purpose of the joint force, which has raised concerns about whether Belarusian forces will join the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
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With Russian forces already struggling to defend territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, officials and analysts believe Russia will not be able to launch a new offensive on the border with Belarus. New York times I have spoken to.
– We see that the soldiers are being transferred to Belarus, but no war materials or ammunition are transferred, Vadim Skipetsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service, tells the newspaper.
So the new border force between the two countries caused a headache for experts.
There are still several theories as to what the purpose of military cooperation is. The first is that Russia is trying to disrupt arms deliveries that reach Ukraine via Poland. The second is that Russia is trying to outmaneuver Ukrainian forces, while some believe they may be real preparations for a new offensive, the New York Times writes.
Friday wrote that British Ministry of Defense in its intelligence report That military activity in Belarus “may be an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarusian solidarity, and to persuade Ukraine to transfer troops to guard the northern border.”
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Don’t think Belarus will send troops
Belarus is Russia’s only ally in the war against Ukraine.
Lieutenant Colonel and Military Strategy Instructor at Försvarshögskolan in Stockholm, Joakim Paasikivi, still does not believe that Lukashenko wants to send the border force to Ukraine.
– I don’t think Lukashenko wants to deploy troops to Ukraine, if he would have done so a long time ago. He relies on Putin for his position, but at the same time knows how unpopular the war in Belarus is, as he previously stated Express.
An expert on Belarus, Ukraine and Russia and advisor to the Helsinki Committee, Arv Hansen, believes that it could be disastrous for the president of Belarus if he was more directly involved in the conflict than he has so far.
Ukrainians and Belarusians have a very close relationship and very few Belarusians support Putin’s aggressive war against Ukraine. It could lead to civil war in Belarus. And since Putin has no power to spare, this could quickly lead to a power grab in Minsk, He told Dagbladet earlier.
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