The nuclear deal: – The regime in Belarus is now at the mercy of Russia

The nuclear deal: – The regime in Belarus is now at the mercy of Russia
Missile launch: The photo was taken a few days ago and shows a short-range Iskander missile launched by the Russian side in the war against Ukraine. This missile system can also be equipped with tactical nuclear weapons and will now be deployed in Belarus.

With the conclusion of the agreement, the chance that Putin will actually deploy tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus increases. – The country has now lost its independence, says a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy.

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Russia stated that Russia and Belarus signed an agreement to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus TASS news agency Thursday.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Russian media that Western countries are waging an “undeclared war” against Russia and Belarus.

Thursday evening condemns the United States Strongly agree.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment to Belarus already in March this year and signing on Thursday is just a formality, according to the news agency. AP.

The agreement is valid Tactical nuclear weaponsTactical nuclear weaponsTactical nuclear weapons aim to destroy enemy forces and weapons on the battlefield. It has a relatively short range and much lower power than nuclear warheads mounted on long-range strategic missiles capable of wiping out entire cities., that is, shorter-range weapons intended for defense. The two countries are close allies, and Russian forces used Belarus when they invaded Ukraine last February.

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Analysts considered Putin’s nuclear declaration in March Direct warning to the West, which was in the process of stepping up military support to Ukraine. – Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram (Sp) said we must extend further.

Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, but according to authorities in Minsk, Belarusian soldiers have received training in using the Iskander system, which can launch missiles with nuclear warheads.

Iskander-M is a Russian short-range solid-propellant missile. Range is limited to 500 km according to inf agreementinf agreementThe Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is a disarmament agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union since 1988, which obligated the two countries to eliminate an entire range of land-based intermediate-range missiles with nuclear weapons.And

According to the Associated Press, Putin said that the construction of storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will be completed by July 1 of this year.

The US authorities believe that Russia is present 2000 tactical nuclear weapon.

On display at the parade: The Iskander M short-range missile system was shown in St. Petersburg on May 9 to commemorate the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) lists three scenarios of a potential Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.

1. Take the tests As a warning to Ukraine and its supporters.

2. Use of battle weapons against Ukrainian military or energy infrastructure targets.

3. Nuclear weapons as terrorism against Ukrainian civilian targets or Ukraine’s neighboring partners.

With this agreement, it seems that Putin is setting up the possibility of proceeding with the second scenario.

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What does this agreement mean?

– It is clear that now Russia has tied Belarus closer to itself and President Lukashenko’s sphere of action has become very limited after that. The country has now lost its independence with regard to its security policy line and order Now at the mercy of Russia, says Associate Professor Ingerid M.

Read more: Rumors flooded about Lukashenko – he did not appear at the national celebration

Lars Peder Haga, an assistant professor at the Air Force Academy, told VG that the agreement concretely means that Russia can deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.

– The weapons will be under the control of the Russian army. But Haga says that any weapons launches will be carried out by Belarusian personnel.

Researcher: Ingrid M. Obdal Associate Professor in the Department of Defense Studies (IFS)

Opdahl says that Belarus declared himself As a non-nuclear weapon state in its constitution.

– But this clause was canceled in 2021-2022. Now, she says, their dependence on Russia is deepening.

And the pressure on Lukashenko increased dramatically after the 2020 elections, the demonstrations, and after the invasion of Ukraine, Opdal saw.

What is the likelihood that Putin is serious about deploying forces?

– Well, Lukashenko has today’s typical occult fashion He said the deployment is underway. But she says it’s hard to tell.

In any case, now the agreement is in effect and then there is an opportunity to deploy weapons.

Expert: Lars Peder Haga, Associate Professor at the Norwegian Air Force School.

It gave up its nuclear weapons in 1991

Opdahl believes two things in particular are important to Belarus in this process. First, the agreement makes it more difficult for the country to have other roles in relation to Ukraine in the future and solidifies Belarus’ position as Russia’s area of ​​advancement.

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– Also, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus (like Ukraine) abandoned its nuclear weapons. In this regard, Russia has given assurances regarding the sovereignty of states. This is now also being undermined when it comes to Belarus, Obdal says.

– Did Putin pressure Lukashenko in this case?

– Lukashenko is in a difficult situation. He is very unpopular in his country and only has legitimacy in the security forces and police but he does not have much support from the population. Putin has gained more control over him in recent years and they have held joint exercises and talked together. At the same time, Lukashenko has been a difficult ally for Putin, Haga believes.

Friends: The Prime Minister of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko was in Moscow and visited Vladimir Putin in April of this year.

just deter?

– Is this really just deterrence on the part of Putin?

It is primarily about deterrence. It is very difficult to assess whether Putin will use these tactical weapons. But she says what goes on in the heads of the leaders in Moscow is not good to say.

Lars Peder Haga states that things are getting worse for Russia in the war and it is conceivable that he will deploy these weapons as a deterrent.

– But when the Belarusian forces receive planes and missiles that can carry nuclear weapons and their storage facilities are ready, the chance of actually deploying them increases, the researcher says.

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Jabori Obasanjo

Jabori Obasanjo

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