February 2, 2023

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The war in Ukraine: - This is how Ukraine can regain Crimea

The war in Ukraine: – This is how Ukraine can regain Crimea

Ukraine fought a valiant war, with a president who started his career as an actor, but had to emerge as a leadership figure against Great Russia.

They have recently won very important battles both in the city of Kherson and in Kharkiv, which has undoubtedly boosted the Ukrainian fighting spirit.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has also been clear that Ukraine wants to take back Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Ukraine has shown that it is capable of responding militarily to Russia. Retired General Arne Bord-Dalhough tells Dagbladet that with their attacks, they have recaptured many areas.

Believe in victory

The Ukrainians themselves believe in a military victory over Russia, and although some voices in the United States talk about peace negotiations, it seems that Volodymyr Zelensky and his men are not in the idea of ​​an armistice or a peace agreement with the Russians.

The war has gone too far for that.

– If Ukraine can achieve a major military breakthrough, it may be able to create a wedge towards the Sea of ​​Azov. That way they could cut off Russia’s supply lines, and devise a plan for how to take back Crimea, Dalhough says.

You want to win the crime: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clear that Ukraine's goal is to regain control of all territories - including occupied Crimea.

You want to win the crime: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clear that Ukraine’s goal is to regain control of all territories – including occupied Crimea.
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It may take time

This could take several months, Dalhogue stresses, and that uncertainty and variables are related to whether this is possible.

– Perhaps we will not witness such an attack in the first place. It’s difficult for both sides to cross the Dnipro, so I think they should go north where they have military control and where the bridges are still intact, says Dalhough.

The Dnipro River is wide, running from north to south in Ukraine, physically dividing the country into two parts. On the eastern side, Russia secured parts of the region. Earlier they were also on the western side, but the Ukrainian forces defeated them.

– I think they should go north to Dnipro to cross the river. Zaporizhzhya approaches the positions of the Russian troops. Then the Russian artillery could kill them, he says.

Cut off the supply line

Another important condition for success is that they managed to drive a wedge into the Sea of ​​Azov, the great gulf that lies north of the Black Sea.

– It will be difficult, but if they succeed, they will make it more difficult for the Russians to deliver supplies to Crimea. Then the forces in the Donbass will be physically separated from the Crimeans. If they succeed, they must gain ground in the south, in order to get as close to Crimea as possible. For this to be possible, they would have to fire artillery at Russian forces in Crimea for a longer period of time, Dalhough says.

– Ukraine should be supplied with weapons and ammunition in the same volume or on a larger scale, as is the case now. They need missiles and artillery with a greater range than they already have, and I also think they need more tanks,” Dalhogue says.

Ask for more support

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba attended the NATO meeting in Bucharest last week. He called for air defense systems from NATO, and stated that there was an urgent need for increased support.

Kuleba said: – When we have transformers and groups, we can restore order and our power grid, and we can provide people with usable living conditions.

– He said that as soon as we have air defense systems, we will be able to protect this infrastructure from the next Russian missile attacks.

At the same meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg asked the foreign ministers of NATO countries to increase their support for Ukraine.

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Do not underestimate the Russians

Many military experts have pointed out that there is a mismatch between Putin’s ambitions and military capability.

In the past, we overestimated the Russian military as to how much resistance Russia could offer. I don’t want to belittle Russian resistance, and it’s hard to say who will come out better from this withdrawal, says Dalhough.

The Russian forces withdrew and formed several defensive lines. This makes it difficult for the Ukrainians to attack them. In the worst case, Dahlog points out, this could lead to a point where neither side has the capacity to launch a major attack.

Deadlocked dispute

– I don’t think the Ukrainians will be able to take control of Crimea until the summer. Then the war should go very well for Ukraine and very badly for Russia, but I don’t think it will. We can have impotence with low severity that can last for many years, Dalhogue says.

Russia has mobilized 300,000 reservists who are being trained to be sent to Ukraine to take part in the war. Many experts pointed out that training these forces will take a long time, and they may not be ready until the spring of next year.

– If Ukraine is to succeed in recapturing Crimea, it is counting on a major military breakthrough. But that is unlikely to happen until after winter, Arne Bord-Dalhough tells Dagbladet.

Retired Attorney General: Arne Bård Dalhaug believes that Ukraine can take back Crimea by the summer.  For that to happen, they are counting on a major military breakthrough, he believes.  Photo: Lars Eyvind Bones/Dagbladet

Retired Attorney General: Arne Bård Dalhaug believes that Ukraine can take back Crimea by the summer. For that to happen, they are counting on a major military breakthrough, he believes. Photo: Lars Eyvind Bones/Dagbladet
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