A series of attacks inside Russia suggests that Ukraine is preparing for its long-announced spring offensive. This is according to Mykhailo Samos, deputy director of the Center for Military Studies in Kiev.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that the spring offensive is approaching.
At the same time, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is raging against the Russian military leadership over the lack of weapons.
Along the 1,000-kilometer front line of the war, everyone is waiting for Ukraine to attack.
Senior researcher at the Defense Research Institute, Sverre Diesen, indicates two possible strategies that Ukraine could choose:
- They could break through the Russian front and enter the occupied regions
- They can push the front back, as they did last spring.
Punch holes in the front line
– When the Ukrainians receive equipment such as modern armored vehicles, armored personnel carriers and modern artillery, an expectation is created that the offensive will happen in a classical way by making a hole in the Russian front somewhere, the former defense minister tells NRK.
In this way they can create a corridor and go far into the Russian-occupied area. There they can tear up Russian supply lines and command posts, he explains.
– In that case, it will be Of crucial importance to the future course of the war, Diessen believes.
However, he questions whether Ukraine has enough weapons to carry out such an operation and whether it has enough time for training.
On Sunday, Russia evacuated the “first thousand” civilians from the Zaporizhia region in the southeast of the country, according to the report. CNN.
Yevgeny Paletsky, who heads the local administration of Russia, refers to several Ukrainian attacks in recent days.
Many analysts believe that Ukraine will launch its spring offensive here.
In this case, it would cut off the Russian land connection to the Crimean Peninsula and make it dependent on the Kerch Bridge.
Dessen believes that would be a serious strategic setback for Russia.
Russia knows that. And therefore it will offer great resistance here precisely, according to Diesen.
If Ukraine is to succeed, it will have to try to break through with a superior offensive force.
Then they can release a new, relieved reserve force through that conquest and into Russian-occupied areas, says Dessen.
Repeat from last year
If Ukraine does not launch such an offensive, it will be a more limited operation, perhaps similar to the one it carried out in Kharkiv and Kherson last year.
And at that time they tried to push the Russian front back, but without falling behind the regions occupied by Russia.
– Ideally, they should have had more materials and more time to practice. They have now created an international and domestic expectation that this attack must come. Then they have the choice between starting now with what they have, or waiting to gain more time, Dessen says.
They believed in peace negotiations
Lieutenant Colonel of Sweden Joachim Paskeve says to svt He believes it will take about a week before the offensive begins: the soil must dry up after a long winter and Ukraine must prepare all new equipment.
If the offensive continues as Ukraine wants, Paskevy believes there could be negotiations early in the winter.
– If Ukraine succeeds, you are forcing Russia to realize that this will not work, says Paskevi.
The Wagner Group is heating up
Both the Russians and the Ukrainians lack weapons and ammunition. On Friday, an angry Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, demanded more weapons. He threatened to withdraw his soldiers from Bakhmut on May 10.
Sverre Diesen interprets this as the Russians will provide ammunition to counter a Ukrainian attack. According to Dessen, the Russians had notorious problems with resupplying ammunition and equipment.
Today, Prigozhin says, they were promised enough ammunition and weapons that he would nonetheless continue to fight in Bakhmut in Ukraine.
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