– Totally irrelevant – E24

– Totally irrelevant – E24

The vast majority believe the interest rate will remain unchanged on Thursday, but some believe there will be another interest rate increase.

DNB Markets' chief economist clearly doesn't think there will be any rate cuts next week.
Published:

Handelsbanken said yesterday that there is a distinct possibility of a rate hike from Norges Bank next week. This is despite the fact that two out of three in the macro team expect interest rates to remain unchanged.

E24 spoke to economists at several of the largest banks and asked them whether there were internal disagreements.

Chief Economist Kirsty Hoagland at DNB Markets said that seven out of seven of them are very confident that interest rates will not change.

-Do you have complete control over your team?

– No, I could have answered differently on other occasions. She says there has definitely been an outbreak in the group in the past.

Rising international interest rates, a still-weak krone, stronger growth in the economy and core inflation taking hold could speak to higher interest rates, said Marius Gunsholt Hof, chief economist at Handelsbanken. In addition, he expressed his belief that yesterday's numbers from the regional network could call for a jump in interest rates.

These arguments are woefully inadequate, says Hoagland.

– In my opinion, raising interest rates is absolutely out of the question. We have never seen any surprises so strong that Norges Bank would have to turn the tables to this extent. She says that would be a complete break with Norges Bank's pattern of reaction.

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Keep the door open

At Sparebank1 SR-Bank, three out of four believe interest rates will remain unchanged. Chief Economist Kerry Knudsen says he would be very surprised if there was an increase, but the chance has increased somewhat recently.

– The way I interpreted Norges Bank last time was that they thought the interest rate level was high enough to have a tightening effect. He says it will take some time until they can actually set it up.

Knudsen expects the interest rate to remain unchanged until December. Then he thinks there will be a cut.

Kyrre Knudsen of Sparebank1 SR-Bank will be very surprised by the interest rate hike.

– He's about to turn around

In Nordea Markets, three out of three agree that the interest rate should be kept constant.

– It is the responsibility of the bankers, says chief economist Ketil Olsen.

He believes that something more dramatic than what we have seen so far must happen if we are to get a raise. Olsen believes Handelsbanken's opening of the withdrawal highlights an important point.

– It just confirms that there is not much need to lower interest rates.

The Bank of Norway aims to reduce inflation to about two percent.

-You can also try to achieve this in the kindest way possible, keeping in mind employment.

The premise for starting to cut interest rates is based on the fact that the economy is starting to slow down, according to the chief economist.

Ketil Olsen at Nordea Markets.

Now there are signs in the economy that things may actually be about to turn. Then I point to the regional network that came here yesterday, he says, and points out, among other things, that companies are more optimistic about the future.

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He believes it is reasonable to question whether interest rates should be cut at all, and that there is an ongoing debate about how tight interest rates actually need to be at current levels.

Harald Magnus Andreessen at Sparebank Markets1.

– It is very unlikely

Harald Magnus Andreessen at Sparebank1 Markets has not heard any talk about increasing interest rates in his circles.

-I think it is unlikely that the Bank of Norway will raise interest rates.

However, it indicates that the economy is performing better than thought for some time.

The economy performed better. He says we see that in almost all areas, although construction is still very poor.

Frank Gollum, chief economist at Danske Bank, was among the economists who expected the largest interest rate cuts this year. It's about fear that things will get worse in the economy, he told E24 on Thursday. The forecast has since been revised and is leaning towards a downgrade in December.

All three economists at Danske Bank believe interest rates will remain unchanged next week.

“We pretty much agree,” he says.

Frank Gollum is chief economist at Danske Bank.
Dalila Awolowo

Dalila Awolowo

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