October 6, 2022

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Ukraine war, foreign affairs |  Reports of the escape of Russians from Crimea: - It will surprise me very much

Ukraine war, foreign affairs | Reports of the escape of Russians from Crimea: – It will surprise me very much

The Ukrainian counterattack continues at a high rate. In the past two weeks, the Ukrainians have recaptured large areas of northeastern Ukraine. Among other things, the Ukrainians recaptured large parts of Kharkiv, and already moved towards the Luhansk province.

The Ukrainian counterattack is massive. Few expected such a massive Ukrainian counterattack, but the strength they built surprised the Russians, says Tom Rossith, director of the intelligence division at the Defense Staff School.

He says that Ukrainian forces have already moved towards the town of Svatov in Luhansk, after crossing the Oskil River, part of which they seized yesterday.

Talk about the days

As Ukrainian forces continue to gain territory, the Russians struggle to strike back. At the same time, about 30 thousand Russian soldiers are trapped in the southern Kherson region, after Ukraine continues to bomb Russian attempts to bridge the Dnipro River, while they are still waiting for reinforcements from Moscow.

The window that has now arisen for Ukraine, it seems that they are using it in full.


– The confusion that stirs the Russian side now will be a matter of days before it ends. But if Ukraine continues to move forward and the Russians are not allowed to create any good and stable defenses in the east, they will continue to be pushed back only to Luhansk until the Ukrainians are extended, says Rosyth.

According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, Ukraine will have regained 3,800 square kilometers in the Kharkiv region. On the other hand, the counterattack on Ukraine gives them new dilemmas.

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It’s dangerous to go too fast now. At the same time that Ukraine sees a weak Russian defense and wants to take advantage of it, the risk of them becoming too far apart and spreading over an area too large increases. Then they will have problems controlling the areas they have occupied, says the intelligence teacher.

Exactly how far one can take it, he adds, is a very difficult decision for Ukraine’s military leaders.

– I think they have Ukrainian and Western intelligence in support of your operation, but the Russian military power should not be underestimated, Rosth believes.

Ukrainian dilemma

According to the Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine will recover 3,800 square kilometers in the Kharkiv region. On the other hand, the counterattack on Ukraine gives them new dilemmas.

It’s dangerous to go too fast now. At the same time that Ukraine sees a weak Russian defense and wants to take advantage of it, the risk of them becoming too far apart and spreading over an area too large increases. Then they will have problems controlling the areas they have occupied, says the intelligence teacher.


Exactly how far one can take it, he adds, is a very difficult decision for Ukraine’s military leaders.

– I think they have Ukrainian and Western intelligence in support of your operation, but the Russian military power should not be underestimated, Rosth believes.

– trying to move

On Tuesday, there were also reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense that the Russians in Crimea were beginning to worry about the Ukrainian counterattack. The Russians occupied Crimea in 2014, and since then it has come under Russian rule.

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According to the message, which is based on Ukrainian intelligence, representatives of the Russian administration, employees of the security service and commanders of some military units are trying to sell their homes and quickly evacuate their relatives from the peninsula.

“At the same time, the occupiers prohibited the conclusion of housing purchase and sale agreements, and imposed restrictions on movement through Krimbroen,” the ministry’s letter read.

The Crimean Bridge separates the peninsula from the mainland of Russia.

Røseth believes that even if the population begins to worry on the peninsula, the Russians are unlikely to surrender Crimea without a fight, and even now the Ukrainians are far away and the Russian forces are very strong there.

– It will surprise me very much. Crimea is so important to Russia that it will not allow individuals to leave without further ado. I think the Russian people see that Crimea is being challenged, that there may be military attacks from Ukraine against military missions on the peninsula. After that, there may be more people who choose to send their families home, Rosith says.

At the same time, he believes that the ministry’s report should be taken into account.

“The way I see it, it is a very short report, neither arguing nor analyzing afterward, he notes.