According to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, only ten percent of the promised Western weapons have arrived in the war – torn country.
Experts have pointed to both Dagbladet logistics challenges and training in Western weapons. Deliveries are long overdue.
But all point to another reason: Germany.
– Violent pressure
From the German side, armored vehicles with air protection are guaranteed, and both the speed and content of deliveries are subject to criticism.
On Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholes called for a “war on time” for the Donbass, and Ukrainian efforts to block Russian progress.
– Conversations are useless
– Scholz seems to be deliberately trying to delay the delivery of what he promised. Thus he has become severely depressed. It is in the process of destroying Germany’s position and influence in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and this is a very worrying development, says retired Lt. Gen. Arne Bart Dulhawk.
Tom Rochet, associate professor and head professor of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, points out that German bureaucratic processes contribute to delays.
– The German domestic policy challenge is that Berlin probably did not have clear contact with Kiev, Rochett says.
Two important rules of life
Germany is now in the middle of what they call the “zeitenwende” – a complete turnaround – and the split in German security and defense policy, explains Kate Hanson Punt, general secretary of the Norwegian Atlantic Committee.
– In this case it should be a basis. Germany has the basic idea of including Russia in the European defense system through trade and economic integration.
Says all troops sent: – Important
However, after the invasion of Ukraine, Punt explains that Germany realized that Russia was something other than the former Soviet Union and could not create a liberal Russia by tying them to a trade and energy community.
He also recalls that Germany had two important rules of life after World War II:
1) Never again. Germany will not use military force to achieve political goals. Military power is illegal in Germany in a completely different way than it is in Britain and France.
2) Never alone again. The cornerstone of German foreign policy is that it must be a multilateral policy. It must happen through the European Union and NATO, not just Germany.
When it comes to the military, Punt says there are various reasons why Germany is reluctant. Among other things, Scholz has pledged 100 billion euros in funding for improvements, and we are reaching the NATO target of spending two percent of Germany’s GDP on defense.
– As for Germany, which has the largest GDP in Europe, it makes a lot of money, and they have the third largest army in the world. They later promised armed assistance to Ukraine.
Ukraine repeatedly asked Germany for tanks and fighter jets, but was denied. Punt believes the reason for the halt to heavy weapons could have three explanatory factors.
- Germany They claim themselves to be very small. Since they have been heavily disarmed since the 90s, they worry about having to defend themselves.
- Ukrainians must be trained to use these weapons, which are manufactured in Germany.
- Germany is probably scared. They are afraid of the Russians, they are afraid of a nuclear war, they are afraid that Russia will shut down the gas pipeline. About 55 percent of Germany’s natural gas comes from Russia.
– Overall, this could explain a lot, says Punt.
– Pulls him
See also the domestic political side of Germany.
– Scholz leads a relatively new government, which is new in another way. It consists of three political parties. This has never been done before in Germany, and the parties in question have never cooperated before.
Both Greens and Liberal Democrats want to take a tougher tone towards Russia, without upsetting the balance in the budget. But the German prime minister is struggling to get his own party involved, Punt explains.
– Social Democrats are divided, they have been around for all years, not just the last 20 years. They have a pacifist who wants to pull him inside and retreat. This section of the party, which is peaceful, anti-war and at least non-US, is also largely pro-Russian.
– Solution missing
– But there is a majority of the Bundestag and the German population to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. Why pay so much attention to one part of the party?
– There is always an explanatory factor. This is another combination of all, Punt responds.
Depending on the United States
Whether Germany delivers as promised depends on how the war develops and what the Americans do.
– Germany has no nuclear weapons and, like little Norway, is completely dependent on US blockades. This is not France or Britain. I think they will deliver, but that may take some time.
– Isn’t it worrying that Germany is asking the question of whether or not to keep what they promised?
– I agree that it is reprehensible. We can explain it, but we cannot protect it.
He describes Germany as a super tanker, which should return to a security and defense policy area.
– During the Cold War, when other countries discussed security and security policies during an international conference, it was funny that the Germans ran around the corridors and entered into trade agreements. Now others will not defend Germany without their own participation, and demand that they stand up for our legal world order, Punt says:
– Germany can not bear to be criticized in this way for a long time, and they have to offer something in a way, but Germany still has some time.
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