For geeks and stock market enthusiasts, the week has been slow and almost scratchy for important macro numbers. But Friday is Christmas Eve, Sanktan and New Year are on the same day.
At 08:00, Statistics Norway presented a new forecast for the Norwegian economy. Statistics Norway expects house prices to grow by 10 percent this year and Seven interest rate increases from September through 2024. T
At 10:00, Nav presents the unemployment numbers recorded for August. An hour later, Eiendom Norge presents its home price statistics for August. The cherry comes out on top at 2.30pm when the new US August employment numbers are released – often referred to as “the hottest numbers of the month.”
However, Nordea Leaf investment director Lev Ron Ren will follow the hiring numbers the most, but says the August job decision likely won’t affect the stock exchanges as much.
– I don’t think that today’s disappointing numbers will change the perception that we are in the assembly phase. I also don’t think high numbers mean we’re “out of the woods,” he says.
But what he believes very strongly is that the stock markets will rise more anyway.
– It was insanely good
On Thursday, the main index on the Oslo Stock Exchange rose to a new record and when the stock exchange opened on Friday, the main index rose slightly from the start, but has since fallen into the red. So far this year, the main index is up about 20 percent – by all accounts a fairly sharp increase eight months into the year.
– I actually think it’s going to go even higher, says Rhein in Nordea.
– There were almost no corrections at all. We had expected these 5% corrections to occur, but little to no downside.
Ren believes the market has been marked by strong quarterly reports from companies.
The accounts were insanely good, he says.
When asked if there was reason to worry about stock markets falling, Ryan replied that one would have lost a 20 percent return if he left the market.
– Says Ren, who believes that something concrete has to happen in order for there to be a permanent downfall, is too expensive to be a pessimist in this market.
– Says the investment manager we have a lot of weight in stocks.
On Friday morning, the price of oil rose about 0.40%, the Norwegian krone did not make big moves, but it strengthened slightly against the euro in the last 24 hours.
‘Very important now’
One of the people who keeps a close eye on the afternoon job numbers, and devoted the morning report almost entirely to the numbers ahead, chief economist Knut A. Magnussen at DNB Markets. He wrote that the US labor market means a lot to the central bank and monetary policy, both in terms of interest rates and the purchase of securities.
Magnussen thinks the numbers are very important right now.
He writes: “The Fed said that a marked improvement in the labor market and inflation would mean that securities purchases could be curtailed.”
Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell said the inflation benchmark has been reached. Magnussen believes it now depends on the evolution of the job market. If the current job report is as good as the forecast of 725,000 new jobs suggests, DNB Markets believes that the central bank will reduce its purchases of securities in November or December, and that these will continue for eight months.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and/or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using a link that leads directly to our pages. All or part of the Content may not be copied or otherwise used with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional terms look here.
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