– It's going to be an exciting week – E24

– It's going to be an exciting week – E24

Inflation rates in both Norway and the United States are among the items on next week's economic calendar. – It could strengthen our view on interest rate cuts in September, says chief economist.

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– It will be an exciting week with inflation figures among the highlights, says Kjersti Hoogland, chief economist at DNB Markets.

Here at home, the week begins with new inflation numbers for February on Monday morning.

Figures from Statistics Norway showed that price growth in January ended at 4.7 percent compared to the same month last year. Core inflation, which ignores energy prices and tax changes, eased to 5.3 percent.

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DNB Markets expects core inflation to decline to 5.1 percent.

If we succeed in achieving this, it will be much lower than the Central Bank’s estimate of 5.5 percent. This in itself could reinforce our view that the Norwegian central bank will cut interest rates in September.

Norges Bank's next interest rate decision comes with the monetary policy report on Thursday, March 21.

US inflation

On Tuesday, new inflation figures will be presented based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States.

For markets in general, US inflation numbers are the most important thing this week, says Hoagland.

Inflation is expected in advance to remain at 3.1 percent, while core inflation is expected to reach 3.7 percent, according to Bloomberg.

Kirsty Hoagland at DNB Markets points to June as the first potential opportunity for interest rate cuts in both the US and the Eurozone.

In January, price growth in the country reached 3.1 percent, compared to the same month last year. The core inflation rate was 3.9 percent, unchanged from the previous month. The US central bank's (Federal Reserve) preferred measure of inflation, Personal consumption expenditures price indexPersonal consumption expenditures price indexThe Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures inflation across a wide range of goods and services, and also reflects changes in consumer behaviour. by 2.4 percent in January.

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DNB Markets expects core inflation to moderate to 3.7 percent in February.

– In addition, there will also be producer prices from the United States this week, which have recently been crucial for the market, says the chief economist.

– It could be the last straw

Kirsty Hoagland points out that the ECB and Fed governors issued signals last week that they will cut interest rates in the near future, and that they believe inflation is on the way down.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its interest rate meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde hinted that the first interest rate cut could come in June.

Fed Jerome Powell said Thursday that US inflation is not far from where the central bank needs to be to cut interest rates, he writes. CNBC.

“We have received strong indications that central bank governors have not changed their minds and are ready for cuts before it is too late,” says Hoagland, pointing to June as a clear time.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has long been aware that the Fed wants to reduce inflation towards the two percent target.

She believes this is why the inflation numbers coming out of the US will be important.

– If a rollback does not materialize, it will clearly help keep doubts alive. They will of course look at more data points, but this may be the last straw that sows doubts again, says the chief economist.

– It is also important for us here at home, given what we can do in terms of interests, Hoagland continues.

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The Fed's next interest rate meeting is 19-20 March.

Positive trends

Norges Bank presents the first report of the year from the regional network on Thursday.

Four times a year, the Central Bank interviews managers from more than 400 companies and organizations about economic development and future prospects. The results are published in reports four times a year, in March, June, September and December.

DNB Markets expects the report to show a slightly more positive trend among companies. Meanwhile, they expect a 0.2 percent increase next quarter.

– We expect things to go a little better than expected in the first quarter, says Kjersti Hoogland.

The chief economist says we probably won't see strong repercussions in either direction.

However, this will not change Norges Bank's image that the Norwegian economy is in good shape, says Hoagland.

New Home Sales, TBU and more inflation

The final report will arrive from the Technical Accounts Committee (TBU) on Friday. He. She Preliminary report, published in February, showed the TBU showing a 4.1 percent price increase in 2024. The TBU report presents analyzes and forecasts of the Norwegian economy, but also statistics on wage trends. It is used as the basis for salary settlement.

The Housing Manufacturers Association is scheduled to release new numbers on new home sales on Thursday. In January, new home sales rose 12 percent, while new homes fell 17 percent compared to the same month last year.

In addition to Norway and the USA, there will also be inflation numbers from Sweden, Germany and France during the week.

Annual reports from a number of companies are displayed, including DNB, Gyldendal and Storebrand.

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Dalila Awolowo

Dalila Awolowo

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