This situation affects many in Ukraine, and the fear of what might happen will spread to the whole of Europe, says Jacob M. Godzimirski of the Norwegian Institute for Foreign Policy (NOBI) for TV 2.
This week, the world’s eyes will turn to Ukraine and the diplomatic talks between the United States, Russia and NATO.
In recent months, Russia has strengthened its presence on the border with Ukraine, and According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, there is a real danger of war.
If Russia decides to attack, the chances of Ukraine’s resistance will be very limited.
– Godzimirsky says that the Russian forces are better equipped and have much better experience in combat operations than other parts of the world than the Ukrainian forces.
Russia has sent about 100,000 soldiers to the Ukrainian border, and the Nubian researcher says that more Russian forces are now being approached at the border. Over the past twenty years, he has worked on Russian foreign and security policy.
Meet for the first time in more than two years
The Russia-NATO Council is scheduled to meet on Wednesday for the first time in more than two years.
During the meeting, they will discuss what Russia describes in its statements as the most important topic for them: NATO’s desire to come up with a formal and legally binding agreement so that Ukraine and Georgia cannot become NATO members. Here is what researcher Nobi Godzimirsky says, and confirms:
– I don’t think NATO would agree to that.
He receives support from Nupi’s chief researcher, Julie Wilhelmsen, who also does not believe that NATO can respond to Russia’s demands.
It is difficult to predict what the consequences of NATO’s rejection of Russia’s demands will be, but the researchers agree that it will not necessarily lead to a major war.
Russia is certainly capable of using military force. They have shown this many times, including in Syria in 2015, but for Russia, this is a calculated risk, says Wilhelmsen.
Godzimirsky believed that a possible war would not be particularly easy for Russia to deal with, and believed that a Russian invasion could lead to instability among the population.
– It could undermine the legitimacy of the current government, and this is what the ruling elite in Russia fear most, he asserts.
It could put Norway in a more uncertain situation
But if Russia chooses to invade Ukraine, Godzimirsky fears what will await her people.
Many people will lose their lives. He adds that many will have to flee and chaos will occur.
If Russia attacks Ukraine, they can expect it Severe sanctions by NATO, the European Union and the United States.
At the same time, the researcher in Nobi claims that Norway is in a more vulnerable position than many other countries, and says that this is due to Norway’s proximity to the Kola Peninsula.
Norway may be more vulnerable if Russia enters the war. Russia has nuclear weapons aboard submarines on the Kola Peninsula, which Russia uses as a security. If there was a major war, the boats would hit the United States.
A major military operation can lead to several unexpected events, and can have a contagious effect not only on countries directly involved in the conflict, but also on countries considered important by Russia, Godzmirsky claims.
– Norway is important in this case because one of the most important Russian military bases is only 100 kilometers from the Norwegian border, concludes Godzmirsky.
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