May 22, 2022

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Ukraine, conflict in Ukraine |  A declaration of war could lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin

Ukraine, conflict in Ukraine | A declaration of war could lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin

US and Western officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be able to formally declare war on Ukraine as early as next week, according to CNN.

As is known, Russia categorically referred to the aggressive war against Ukraine as a “special military operation”. An official declaration of war could give Putin access to the reserve forces.

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writes Danish security analyst Jacob Carsbo, a senior analyst at Tænketanken Europa and former head of analysis at the Danish Armed Forces Intelligence Service. Twitter That a Russian declaration of war could lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin.

“I don’t want to rule out the possibility of Putin declaring war, but the opposite is also possible,” Carspo wrote on Twitter, “If Putin does this, it would be very risky and could lead to his downfall.”

My assessment is that Putin really has a big problem, and I’m starting to doubt whether he can ever find a way out. But I don’t quite understand how he can be removed from power either. If so, who should have removed it? Carspo tells Netavizen.

From a Western point of view, Putin declared war long ago. But the Russians themselves have a different opinion. If Putin now chooses to formally declare war on Ukraine, he must also define what he wants to achieve with it. During the so-called “Special Operation”, he managed to identify targets along the way. When Russia failed to capture Zelensky and Kiev, Putin suddenly specified that the goal was to “liberate” Donbass. Carspo, who has 15 years of experience in Danish intelligence, says the schedule finds out if he declares war.

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– As far as I know, there has never been a Russian ruler who lost the war and still managed to stay in power. He also says it’s relatively rare in other places around the world.

It’s not that Putin can just declare war, and then have a million soldiers he can deploy against Ukraine. The former intelligence analyst notes that there are a number of conditions that must be put in place if he is to succeed in invading Ukraine.

The reserve forces are not well prepared

It is no secret that Putin and Russia underestimated the fighting spirit and capabilities of the Ukrainian forces, as well as the West’s unlimited support for Kiev. This resulted in much greater losses on the Russian side than was likely included in the calculations before the invasion.

Western and Ukrainian sources estimate that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers were killed during the two-month war.

An official declaration of war, under Russian law, could allow Putin to mobilize reserve forces and call up conscripts. Announcing an official declaration of war on the symbol-filled May 9, Russia’s liberation day during World War II, may bolster popular support among the Russian people for the war in Ukraine, according to CNN.

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– I think that Russia has about half a million reserve forces, but the majority of them have been in reserve forces for many years, and therefore their preparedness is weak. In this case, many of them have to start over. It is not about soldiers who can be ready for battle in a short time. In a best-case scenario, Carspo says, it will take two to three months to achieve the necessary mass mobilization.

Even if the Russians manage to mobilize and train half a million soldiers, they must also ensure that they have equipment and not least weapons. He adds that there are many indications that it will be difficult for Russia to purchase heavy weapons and armored vehicles for a large force in a short time.

You may have picked up intelligence

– What do you think is the reason for the emergence of such speculation about a Russian declaration of war, Candles Light?

As far as I know, it was British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace who came up with this first. The British had already pulled out a lot of classified intelligence regarding the Ukraine war, he said.

Carspo points to a recent radio interview with Wallace, in which the defense secretary largely called for a possible official Russian declaration of war.

“I have no information on this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if (Putin’s editor’s note) would probably announce on this day in May that we are “now at war with the world Nazis and we must mobilize the masses of the Russian people,” Defense Minister Wallace told BBC News. LBC.

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Putin “legitimized” the invasion by saying that Russia intended to “distort” and “liberate” Ukraine.

“I do not exclude that Western intelligence has picked up possible intelligence in the Russian presidential administration indicating plans for preparations for declaring war, such as preparations for placing supplies and how they can obtain equipment for new soldiers,” he said. Carspo.

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– He secretly mobilized

Ukrainian intelligence is increasingly convinced that Putin will announce the mobilization of the reserve forces on May 9. Writes the famous think tank Institute for the Study of WarReferring to the statements of the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence.

“The head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service, Krylo Bodano, stated on May 2 that the Kremlin had begun preparations for the mobilization operation and personnel before the expected announcement on May 9, and had already carried out a secret mobilization,” the institute wrote a study on the war in its assessment on May 3.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently faced speculation that Putin will officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9.

– There’s no chance of that. Peskov replied that this is nonsense Watchman.

Russian authorities also denied that they had any plans to attack Ukraine in the days leading up to the February 24 invasion.