Samuel Sharrab, a former advisor to Barack Obama’s government, not only predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine. Sharrab came out on the eve of 2021 and said the invasion would likely take place in late February 2022.
As one of the few analysts, he was right when Vladimir Putin’s brutal war machine launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year.
In an interview with Danish TV 2 Sharab now tells how he thinks the bloody war will end.
Expert: – Not likely
Sharab, now a senior researcher at the US think tank Rand, believes that the war in Ukraine will not end with a complete victory for one side.
-Victory in wars can be achieved by disarming one side or by removing, erasing, or replacing the government. That’s completely out of the question, says Sharab.
He also does not believe that the war will end with a peace agreement, and considers that the chances are increasingly diminishing.
Sharab says that reaching a peace agreement and political settlement is unlikely due to the strong hostility that arose during the war.
Pointing to Korea
Therefore, the most likely thing is a ceasefire, but where the two parties do not agree on where the international border should go, according to the senior researcher.
Perhaps this reminds us of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Officially, the Korean War never ended, but North and South Korea lived side by side for nearly 70 years without war. However, there are many differences.
The front line running through Ukraine is ten times the length of the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.
– We are talking about a very long contact and front line, but I think we can find innovative ways to monitor the ceasefire. Sharab says it is likely that there will be a Russian flag flying in Kiev or a Ukrainian flag in Moscow.
the current situation
In fact, the lead researcher describes a scenario that might resemble the situation prevailing in Ukraine before last year’s large-scale Russian invasion.
Since 2014, Russian forces have occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which together make up the Donbass region, in the far east of Ukraine.
Formalizing such a solution, which now includes larger areas of Ukraine, currently appears out of the question for the Ukrainian authorities.
Ukraine also expressed this clearly when Norwegian NATO Chief of Staff Stjean Jensen stated that a possible solution to the war might be for Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for membership in NATO.
Jensen then came out and amended the statement, saying it was an error.
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