Food prices could become a joke in interest rates – NRK Norway – An overview of news from different parts of the country

Food prices could become a joke in interest rates – NRK Norway – An overview of news from different parts of the country

Price inflation fell sharply in the July-August period. Now analysts are wondering ahead of the release of new inflation figures from Statistics Norway on September 11.

– Food prices can become a clown. There is an unusually high amount of uncertainty, says chief economist Kjersti Hoogland at DNB Markets.

An interest rate of 4.25% would be the peak interest rate, predicts DNB Markets and Chief Economist Kjersti Hoogland.

Photo: Alf Simensen/NRK

Because if food prices develop in August in the same way as they have done so far this year, there could be another jump in inflation, according to Statistics Norway.

The reason is that if food prices go up, that can lead to an increase in inflation, which in turn can have an impact on the level of interest rates. For example, it takes longer before the interest rate is lowered.

More on that below.

Outside the Extra store on Majorstua in Oslo, student Tim, who comes from Vågå in Gudbrandsdalen, noticed that shopping had become more expensive.

Increase in food prices

Comparing food prices and wage trends says something about whether you’re getting more, less, or the same amount for your money.

When the evolution of food prices is higher than the evolution of wages, it means that food has become more expensive. Both figures represent averages for the specified period.

Read more about sources and reservations here.

How much have food prices increased in the past year, compared to wage trends?

I live in a nice group where we share most things. But I think single people who live alone have noticed that the package of minced meat has become more expensive, he says.

From the new year until this summer, consumer prices rose monthly by about three times the central bank’s target of 2 percent price growth annually.

Tim from Vågå, outside the Extra store in Majorstua

“Maybe prices have gone up steadily,” student Tim says.

Photo: Johann B. Steam

– I saw it on receipts after I shopped, and I thought, Oh, this was cheaper the last time I thought about the price, he says.

– A very significant impact on price growth

During the month of July, price inflation fell by one full percentage point. The question now is whether this trend will continue. If so, it’s good news for those hoping that the central bank will soon run out of aggressive interest rate medicine.

– It will be very interesting to continue. “Food accounts for a large proportion of the CPI, so it has a very big impact on price growth in general,” says Kjersti Hoagland, chief economist at DNB Markets.

It expects Norges Bank to raise interest rates for the last time in September.

Nordea also expects that he will now do another rate hike in September. to Finansavisen Low electricity prices, a price war on electric cars, and weak consumption figures are leading to lower inflation, says chief strategist Dane Sykov.

percent policy rate

The policy rate is set eight times a year by Norges Bank. Interest rate policy governs interest rates at banks, and affects your housing costs. The goal of raising the interest rate is to bring high prices down again.

Forecasts tell us how Norges Bank thinks interest rates will develop in the future.

Read more about sources and reservations here.

A higher interest rate means higher expenses if you have a mortgage

Norges bank forecast

But the big question is what will happen to the evolution of grocery prices this fall.

So far this year, grocery chains have broken away from a more than ten-year practice of changing prices mainly only twice a year. Food chain Rima said this summer that the food chain is moving away from the practice.

Central Bank Governor Ida Waldenbach is now paying very close attention.

Central Bank Governor Ida Walden Bash

Central Bank Governor Ida Waldenbach and the Monetary Policy Committee of Norges Bank are closely watching food prices.

Photo: Ismail Burak Akan/NRK

Food prices have gone up a lot in the past year. Previously, these price changes occurred twice a year, in February and July. Now it is distributed more evenly. The central bank governor says this gives some uncertainty about the month-to-month trajectory of food prices.

It says Norges Bank expects the rise in food prices to gradually decrease.

This quote is from an interview that NRK gave to Walden Bache in connection with the publication of the latest interest rate change on August 17th.

The central bank does not conduct interviews after work begins on the next interest rate decision, which is usually 2-3 weeks before the interest rate meetings.

Uncertain growth in prices in August

Usually, consumer prices fall during the month of August.

But if food prices follow the same trend as they have so far this year, it is not certain that they will now, says Espen Christiansen, head of the consumer price index at Statistics Norway. The question then becomes what this means for future interest rate developments.

– Food prices have risen steadily every month. If it also happened in August, meaning prices rose from July to August, you’d get an increase in inflation measured by the 12-month CPI, says Espen Christiansen.

Interest calculator

The calculator uses the loan annuity formula to calculate your monthly costs. Nominal interest is used here. This means that there will be additional transaction fees which will vary from bank to bank. Today’s interest rate is taken from the DNB youth mortgage interest rate, and different banks will have different interest rates. So the numbers given here will be approximations for you. Monthly expenses are interest and premiums combined.

Read more about sources and reservations here.

Find out how much you would have to pay if the interest rate increased.

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