Today, Tuesday, Nordea Life Chief Investment Officer Leif-Rune Rein has appeared in the DN columns and is predicting a 10 percent return on global stocks this year. Below at Danske Bank in Aker Brygge in Oslo, chief strategist Anders Johansen was more cautious.
He and the bank believe global stocks will rise by about five per cent in 2022. He expects more volatile markets ahead.
We believe that the volatility that we have seen in the last month or two will continue. Now omikron is upon us, but at the same time it seems to have been priced out of the market. We think the first quarter will be characterized by increased measures and austerity to ensure that hospitals do not fill up, Johansen said.
The main index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is up about half a percent since the start of Tuesday.
Johansen has particular confidence in two sectors in the new year.
It first highlights the financial sector as a favourite.
They do a good job when interest rates go up, and we think interest rates are going to go up even more — and so do long-term interest rates. This is positive for the banking sector in particular.
– The other is communication. The entire sector, which is a developing sector, did not rise nearly as much as the other growth sectors. For example, everything about software has risen a lot. He adds that telecoms are facing a long trend with significant growth, for example, 5G and the Internet of Things, but they are not priced in the same way.
On the other hand, Danske Bank suffers from a shortage of “everything” of goods, except for oil and gas. Whether it is iron ore, steel, copper, powders, various chemicals for industry, etc. However, the bank and Johansen have also said this before.
– So far it hasn’t been so good. It’s been a sector that’s gone up a lot and when growth is down a little bit and China uses less raw materials, we’re underweight there, he says, but he stresses that it’s not the case with oil and gas.
I think Oslo might come as a surprise
Johansen thinks the Oslo Stock Exchange will generate a return of around five percent for the year as well, but the Norwegian Stock Exchange is more likely to surprise favorably than to disappoint. This is because he believes that the price of oil will remain at current levels and there is a greater risk that it will rise from the decline in light of the energy crisis, especially in Europe.
Going forward, there are three things in particular that it tracks: corona, inflation, economic development and growth in China.
Investment Manager Lev Ron Ren He cited the growth of corporate profits as an important matter to follow. According to him, global stocks posted a 53 percent profit growth last year. This year, he said, a seven percent profit growth is expected.
It is in a year in which economic growth is expected to be higher than it has been in the past ten years. “I think there is good scope for positive surprises,” Ren said.(Conditions)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and/or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using a link that leads directly to our pages. All or part of the Content may not be copied or otherwise used with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional terms look here.
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