Norges Bank’s “Regional Grid” report could confirm whether or not the central bank will raise interest rates in the middle of the month. But this week also brings the opening of tax rolls.
Are you wondering how much your neighbor earns? And early Wednesday morning, you can search the tax lists again, when the Swedish Tax Agency publishes the 2022 version.
Listings will traditionally get a lot of attention as they become known, but there are also far more important things on the calendar next week.
Norges Bank’s decision on whether or not to raise interest rates in December will not come until Thursday 14 December. But this week there is a very important indicator from the central bank.
On Thursday, Norges Bank presents the fourth and final report of the year from companies in Norges Bank’s regional network. The central bank actually managed to publish parts of the report by mistake.
The figures released cast doubt on whether a new interest rate hike will be necessary.
-I’m particularly excited about what companies expect from wage growth. This of course affects the interest rate and gives signals about what awaits the salary settlement in the spring, says chief economist Kerry M. Knudsen at SpareBank 1 SR-Bank.
We expect unemployment rates to rise in the United States
Outside the world, there will also be important macro numbers next week.
More importantly, according to DNB Markets Chief Economist Ingvild Borgen, are the November employment numbers from the US which will arrive on Friday afternoon.
– We expect the numbers to show that employment growth rose slightly, but unemployment rose to 4 percent, Borgen wrote in the weekly DNB Market report.
If the brokerage firm is correct in its unemployment forecast, we are now seeing levels in the United States consistent with a recession, they write.
– Fairly steady real growth
But early Tuesday, the number that will probably generate the most attention will arrive around dinner tables in this country. That’s when Eiendom Norge presents house price figures for November.
According to most experts, the numbers will show a further decline in prices.
-We believe there will be a marginal decline of 0.2 percent in the seasonally adjusted numbers. With the significant decline in housing prices last fall, this year’s numbers were affected. So we also think there will be one NominallyNominallyThe nominal figures are the development from the previous month. The decline is 1.5 percent for November, says Sarah Midtgaard, chief economist at Handelsbanken.
It was expected that interest rates would rise in the fall, and the development of nominal rates for 2023 would end at zero.
– It looks a bit scary for these forecasts now, says Prognosesenteret analyst Peder B. Hansen.
He believes that October’s price decline was weaker than they expected. Therefore, very significant price reductions are required during the last two months of the year to achieve a completely stable development in house prices during the year.
For this year, there will be fairly flat real growth because price increases for everything else have been high this year, says Hansen.
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