Typically, there is talk of a “spring release” of housing stock in April. Knudsen comments that there is so much for sale this year in the housing market that it is like a spring flood.
– Now we can see how afraid people are of jumps in interest rates and whether they are still willing to pay. The housing market has fared much better through interest rate jumps than most feared. He says that if home prices remain steady through these spring months, the risk of a significant price decline will be much lower than many had feared.
Will Sweden reduce interest rates?
The Riksbank holds an interest rate meeting on Wednesday at 09.30. In its March monetary policy report, the Riksbank suggested the possibility of an interest rate cut in May or June.
The situation in the neighboring country is different from what it is here at home, where the real estate market has been severely affected at the same time as unemployment has risen and inflation has fallen.
– This paves the way for lower interest rates. There is almost a 50/50 chance of no change or cut in interest rates at this meeting, so that will be exciting. In this case, the first central bank that would mean the most to us would be to cut interest rates, says Knudsen.
– If they don't cut rates now, there's a good chance they will cut rates at the next meeting on June 26, that is, after the Norges Bank rate meeting on June 20, he says.
Norwegian inflation
On Friday at 08.00, Statistics Sweden (SSB) will present inflation figures for April.
– Previous numbers were a positive surprise with inflation lower than Norges Bank estimates. But since then there has been a push in most other areas regarding interest rate cuts, Knudsen says.
According to its chief economist, Norges Bank expects overall inflation to reach 3.5 percent and core inflation at 4.2 percent in the second quarter.
He believes that the inflation number will be the last straw as we can hope for a rate cut in September.
– If there is a chance of cuts in September, this figure should also be lower than Norges Bank estimates, says Knudsen.
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