On Monday, it was exactly a month since the last public appearance of the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. He was supposedly killed in an attack on occupied Crimea.
- The commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov (68 years old), has not appeared in public for a month.
- and speculation that he may have been killed in a Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian command post in Crimea on January 4.
- There is no evidence or confirmation from Russian or Ukrainian authorities.
- In the past, rumors about the death of Gerasimov and other Russian leaders were false; Gerasimov had previously been absent for longer periods.
- Experts believe there is a 50% chance that Gerasimov is dead, but the Kremlin would probably never admit it if that were the case.
Valerig Gerasimov (68 years old) is the Chief of the Russian General Staff and corresponds to the Norwegian Defense Minister.
He belongs, along with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, to the top two military commanders in Russia.
On December 29 he wrote Komsomolskaya Pravda And other Russian media reported that Gerasimov presented medals of honor to the soldiers who participated in the battles of the town of Marinka in the Donetsk region.
There has long been speculation about whether Gerasimov was killed in a Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian command center in Crimea on January 4.
The Russian authorities did not comment on these speculations.
Nothing concrete was said from the official side in Kiev.
Wisdom degree 24 He wrote that 23 Russian soldiers were killed in the attack on the Saki base in Crimea on January 4. Five of them are said to be high-ranking officers.
Several Telegram channels speculated that Gerasimov was present at the Russian military base that day. But no one came forward with evidence.
The more days pass without Gerasimov appearing in public, the more the rumors gain a foothold. On Saturday, celebrations were held in St. Petersburg to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the siege imposed by Nazi Germany on what was then Leningrad. Vladimir Putin was present, but neither military leader was present.
“It's hard to say,” answers Danish Jacob Carspo, senior analyst at Think Tank Europe and former Defense Intelligence Service employee, when VG asks.
What indicates that he may be dead is that since the beginning of January, a specific attack has occurred in the Crimean Peninsula, where he was located.
On the other hand, there have been rumors in the past about the death of many Russian dignitaries, which are false. It is also not unusual for Gerasimov not to appear in public for long periods. It's happened before. We should also remember that Gerasimov was also reported to have been killed in an attack in Donbas in 2022, Jakub Karaspo tells VG.
He concludes that this is all an open question.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's last public appearance was on January 12, when he visited a missile factory in the Moscow region. VG could not find photos in which Gerasimov was on this visit.
Gerasimov is considered the third most powerful Russian military man after Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu.
He has been criticized by many nationalist military bloggers for Russia's failure to subjugate Ukraine. This applies, among other things, to the late Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and ultranationalist Igor Girkin, who was sentenced last week to four years in prison for inciting extremism.
Jan Kalberg, an American military analyst who, among other things, is associated with the Center for European Policy Analysis, follows the war closely and writes X:
– I'm beginning to think that General Gerasimov may be dead.
Kalberg continues:
– If he was, and if the Russians said he died of a medical cause, then the Ukrainians would have killed him. If the Russians say that the Ukrainians killed him, then the Kremlin killed him itself. This is how Russian lying works. These lies become predictable over time.
In September 2023, the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Viktor Sokolov, suddenly disappeared.
Ukrainian special forces claim he was killed in an attack on Crimea on September 25. There was no evidence of this, and there was no Russian statement about Admiral Sokolov. However: he has not been seen in public since.
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