Waiting for the banks’ interest rate party – he believes one factor will be decisive – E24

Several heavyweights on Oslo Børs this week report quarterly figures for the third quarter. Storebrand’s director, Tiril Støle, is particularly excited about the amount DNB will set aside for losses in commercial properties.

Quarterly season is upon us, and this week several stock market giants are reporting their third-quarter numbers.

Among the companies that will present their results are DNB, Yara, Nordea, Gjensidige Forsikring and Nordic Semiconductor.

– DNB is one of the companies that is expected to report an increase in net profit and income for the third quarter compared to last year, says Støle.

The most interesting thing in Thursday’s report is whether there will be larger provisions for losses in commercial real estate. So far, losses have been generally low, and if this continues, DNB’s numbers will be very good, says the analyst.

– What do you think of the income from increasing interest rates? Will there be a DNB interest rate party?

-Interest rates have continued to rise, but the effects of each individual increase in interest rates have become smaller and smaller for banks. The last 25 basis points do not have the same impact on net interest as the first increases from zero did. But interest rate increases will still be positive for banks, and net interest income is expected to hit a record high of over NOK 16 billion in the third quarter for DNB, answers Støle.

– An interesting indicator of vulnerable families

Støle highlights several characters she believes are worth following.

– Otherwise, the numbers for unsecured debt or credit debt will also be able to say something about the temperature of the economy in general. She says this is an interesting indicator of how the most vulnerable households are faring.

But despite forecasting record revenue for DNB this quarter, Støle is excited about how the banking sector will evolve once interest rates peak.

– What’s interesting is what happens when interest rates stabilize. Now that lending growth has slowed, banks may be tempted to reduce their lending margin in order to gain market share – and Stoll says this increased competition will erode their interest margin.

But it’s not just DNB’s numbers that are causing major excitement this week.

– Intra reports on Wednesday There may be more write-downs in the real estate portfolio as long-term interest rates continue to rise, Støle believes.

– Yara and Nordic Semiconductor also reported, and one would expect a significant decline in the top line for both companies, from very high levels in the same quarter last year. For NOD, the percentage decline in the bottom line will be among the largest on the exchange on an annual basis. The company has already received a “profit warning” for its third-quarter numbers.

– Gjensidige also reports at the weekend, here the numbers are generally weak due to the autumn storms, and it will be more interesting to look at the fundamental development in the insurance result, continues the Storebrand manager.

-Tesla numbers will be an event in themselves

Mads Johansson, economist at Nordnet, is excited about the numbers released this week.

– The global economy is still growing, and if you combine that with lower gas prices, Yara could do well quickly, says Johansson.

– DNB has had great results in recent years with high interest rates and the markets division generating really good profits. This will also likely be the case when the bank announces the numbers this week, the economist says.

He has lower expectations for the numbers coming from Entra and Nordic Semiconductor.

– High market interest rates have sharply eroded growth and real estate stocks such as Nordic and Intra. “Unfortunately, I think this will be another quarter with poor results,” he adds.

– What numbers should small shareholders be watching this week?

– As a private investor, it will be important to monitor your stocks, as well as the big stocks that are driving the market such as DNB, Tesla and US banks. This will give you a good picture of the overall economy, he says.

Tesla is a favorite among Nordnet’s minority shareholders.

Tesla’s numbers will be an event in and of themselves, and we will likely witness massive interest and trading in the stock. It depends a little bit on what the numbers look like, Johansson says.