Conflict in Ukraine – Is Putin the first to blink?

in any war The truth is the first sacrifice. Therefore, one should not believe the Russian assurances that the war will not come to Ukraine, nor the American and British intelligence that told us that the Russian invasion will probably begin yesterday. And no one should believe in NATO President Jens Stoltenberg, who never let the matter go without declaring that no other country would decide whether Ukraine would become a NATO member. Through this progressive ritual discourse, and by organizing the deployment of more soldiers in the borderlands of alliance with Russia, it helps to escalate and further militarize the conflict.

And when it comes To whom will decide who will join NATO – the most pressing issue in the dangerous military conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine – then one needs no further than Germany, the European superpower. After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Schulz said frankly what was true, and as everyone knows, Ukraine’s NATO membership is not an issue for now.

Take one plus In light of what French President Emmanuel Macron said after his meeting with Putin last week – that is, there is no security in Europe without also taking into account Russia’s security – we have two very different approaches in the West to today’s crisis in the East. On the other hand, the United States and Britain, which “leaked” security reports of an impending major war, acted as the future central bank governor in the role of echo in this theater of war. On the other hand, France and Germany want real talks with Russia about a security architecture in Europe where from Moscow’s perspective, the continent is a point of view.

And in the middle of this We have the potential battlefield in Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to tone down US and British intelligence reports/propaganda messages, while at the same time asking for more Western support. And most importantly, at the same time he knows that if there really is a war, Ukraine is the biggest victim.

So to the question, Was Putin the only one who blinked an eye when Russia said on Tuesday it had begun withdrawing its forces from the border with Ukraine, and on Wednesday began withdrawing troops from annexed Crimea? Putin can hardly start a war yesterday, in the same way that he could start a war tomorrow, next week, or next week. Because at the same time as reports of Russia’s withdrawal, NATO comes with reports of new Russian troops arriving at the Ukrainian border.

It is, of course Putin who started the military aggression is the starting point for today’s crisis. He is someone who has previously taken great risks in foreign policy, such as in Syria after the Arab Spring, with the annexation of Crimea, and support for the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Therefore, there is little reason to believe that US President Joe Bidens and threats The West to impose more sanctions on Putin bothers her.

At the same time, the invasion of Ukraine It is clearly not Putin A’s plan. But it may be that his plan B or C did not initiate this gunboat diplomacy with no prospect of recovering anything. It seems that the Russian president remains a rational player. He is a geopolitical player similar to the reactionary Tsar Nicholas L., who played zero-sum matches with other European powers for nearly 150 years. The major defeat of Nikolai was precisely the Crimean War, in which other European powers halted his geopolitical expansion against Istanbul. In the Crimea, of all places.

While the United States and the United Kingdom, And their NATO echoes don’t seem to want to give Russia more than less, France and Germany seem to have a bigger perspective. Russia has legitimate security interests that have not been addressed since the end of the Cold War. Those who think that Putin, with his modest gestures of de-escalating the conflict, has given up, may be surprised. For Putin, this conflict has long become personal.

to seize the opportunity Now, to fly over the NATO unity that made Putin bow is unhistorical and unwise, moreover, it is still far from the truth. Putin is someone who doesn’t like being called weak or resilient more than anyone else. Putin’s perspective on his security should be taken seriously, as France and Germany do. Not least for Ukraine.