War College senior instructor Palle Ydstebø says the war will be largely determined by how much resources Ukrainian and Russian forces can provide to the front.
– It will again depend on economic and industry conditions. For Ukraine, it is about Western political will, economics, and war-making. The West is completely superior to Russia in all areas, but Russia can still use the large quantities of materials and ammunition it has available, he tells ABC News.
In recent months, there have been a number of advances by Ukrainian forces. On the Russian side, there are reports of poor organisation, morale and management.
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Expect new breakthroughs
Ydstebø adds that the state of stocks is variable, and it is not certain how many different types Russia has and how much can still be used.
Senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Foreign Policy, Carsten Friis, predicted a “partial” war of attrition until 2023.
– I expect new Ukrainian breakthroughs here and there along the front line, but it is questionable whether they will have the ability to completely drive out the Russians. It’s hard to predict, he tells ABC Nyheter.
– could threaten Putin’s power
Friis believed that any new Russian mobilization would not be sufficient for Russia.
– If Putin announces a complete new mobilization, as the Ukrainian Defense Minister claims, then of course it will give them more power on the ground in the long term, but it will also not be enough for the soldiers. They also need artillery and tanks, which are limited. In addition, the mobilization is very unpopular, and could threaten Putin’s authority in Moscow, the researcher believes.
In November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia had no plans for a new mobilization.
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