Poland and Ukraine are in constant conflict. The consequences can be significant.
The short version
- The conflict between Poland and Ukraine revolves around Ukrainian grain exports through the country.
- Increased Ukrainian grain exports are blamed for falling grain prices in Eastern Europe. This situation has escalated into threats from Poland if it wants to stop arms support to Ukraine.
- It is possible that the conflict between Ukraine and Poland could develop into a trade war. This led to unrest in the Western coalition supporting Ukraine.
The summary is created with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and quality guaranteed by Aftenposten journalists.
-Someone in Europe is running Moscow missions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this from the UN podium on Wednesday. This statement is the latest in a long series of rhetorical statements between Poland and Ukraine. Now Zelensky is not mentioned Poland by name Agriculture ministers spoke together on Thursday. However, since Friday, accusations have remained mutual between the two countries.
As happened when a Ukrainian trade official said on Monday that they would file a complaint with neighboring countries at the World Trade Organization. The Polish diplomat reacted immediately:
-Is he drunk? Hoot POLITICO.
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most important supporters. On Wednesday evening, the Prime Minister said they would stop sending weapons to the war-torn country.
But the Polish president came out on Thursday evening and said that the statements regarding the suspension of arms support for Ukraine had been misinterpreted.
what is going on? Why is this disagreement good news for Putin?
Why are Ukraine and Poland arguing?
Ukraine is a country of grains. Therefore, income from the sale of grain from the Black Sea was important for the country’s economy.
Russia and Vladimir Putin realize this. When it launched a major attack 18 months ago, its goal was to prevent the possibility of transporting grain from Ukraine to the Black Sea.
The European Union found a solution to this problem early on. Through road corridors in neighboring countries, Ukraine can transport its grain to the world – bringing in invaluable income.
So far, so good. There was no backlash to interstate and international shipping. But the agreement also has another side: the possibility of storing Ukrainian grain in transit countries. Thus outperforming the grain price of the neighboring country.
It is, to say the least, not common in transit countries. This is especially important this fall.
Why is this happening now?
This spring, grain prices fell sharply in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Ukrainian grains were blamed. In May, these countries joined the European Union in limiting the import of Ukrainian grain to their markets.
On Friday last week, the European Union lifted the ban. The reactions in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia were fantastic. They say they will oppose repeal.
At that time, Ukrainian Taras Kachka filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization. The Polish diplomat wondered if he was drunk.
Tom Roseth is a principal instructor of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy. It is believed that there are two reasons for the conflict:
- Russia: It has been a deliberate Russian strategy to limit Ukrainian grain export potential.
- Elections in relevant countries: Slovakia and Poland both hold elections in the near future. In Slovakia, a pro-Russian candidate could become prime minister. In Poland, the ruling party Law and order Very interested in securing the votes of the Polish peasants.
– I think we will see Poland holding out until the elections in October, says Roseth, who believes the conflict brings with it a worrying development.
What could the consequences be?
The Polish Prime Minister announced on Wednesday that they will stop arms support for Ukraine. This came at a time when Ukraine would try to deliver a coup against Russia through a counterattack that was not very successful.
Roseth believes this is primarily a sign of cracks in the Western alliance and support for Ukraine.
There is one person in particular who is happy with it.
Who wins the conflict?
Maybe it will ensure the sharp line Law and Order Party Continuation of power in Poland. But Rosyth is clear about who benefits most from the European conflict.
– It’s Russia. Ultimately, this was the desired strategy on the Russian side. They want to hit Ukraine economically and divide unity in the West.
He now hopes that the European Union and the Americans will be able to put pressure on these countries.
These countries depend on each other for security, so the situation is very unfortunate. They simply need to moderate their rhetoric, Roseth says.
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