Price growth will be in focus this week. More important are the numbers from the USA, says Handelsbanken chief economist Marius Gunsholt Hof.
– There is no big week here at home, so it will likely be the numbers from the US that will get the most focus, Handelsbanken chief economist Marius Gunsholt Hof tells E24.
Economists expect US inflation to moderate slightly from 3.7 to 3.3 percent, according to a consensus obtained by Bloomberg. Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1 percent.
– The overall price increase is expected to decline further, and this must be viewed in the context of lower energy prices. Core inflation is where it sticks most strongly, Hof says, before continuing:
– Monthly growth in Johar is expected at 0.3 percent. Hof confirms that it is well below the peak, but you are starting to see some levels that make it more difficult to get the price increase down to 2 percent.
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Holiday travel has become much more expensive. False goods have low price growth.
– Trying to maintain the impression
Hof believes that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has reached the peak of interest rates, but at the same time he believes that another increase cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, Fed Governor Jerome Powell is clearly interested in keeping interest rate expectations high going forward.
– He says current interest rate levels are restrictive enough, but interest rate expectations have been talked about recently.
-And now the Fed is trying to maintain that impression. You don’t want to price sales too early. Maybe they feel uncomfortable, and during Powell’s speech last week, he looked more at Powell “Hawks”“Hawks”The “hawk” and the “two” describe opposing beliefs about the interest rates required by the financial picture. “Hawkers” support raising interest rates, while “doves” want lower interest rates. Than expected by the market, says Hoff.
It could be bad news
On Thursday, Norges Bank will publish its survey of inflation expectations and wage developments for the fourth quarter. Hoff believes this will be important to pursue.
At home, inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 4.0 per cent last week, meaning many now expect another interest rate hike from the Norwegian Bank in December.
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The chief economist points out that parties have already raised their wage forecasts for next year, and one can see that wage growth is helping to contribute more directly to price growth. This is something Norges Bank will take into account when making calculations in the future.
-We had a cold shower on Friday as core inflation rose again. The increase in wages will help keep price inflation high. If the result is that expectations remain high, that’s bad news for Norges Bank, says Hoff.
– But in general, I am of the opinion that you are mostly close to the peak of interest rates, whether abroad or here at home, he says.
The results rush continues
Earnings season in Oslo Børs continues in full force this week, although many corporate giants were already in action. The next few days will show quarterly figures from companies such as Subsea 7, Lerøy Seafood, Greg Seafood and Stat Torsk.
Last week, oil prices fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since July, before rebounding somewhat at the end of the week. The November decline comes on the heels of the price reaching $95 a barrel in September.
Several times earlier this year, OPEC cut its production in an attempt to raise prices. On Monday they come with their monthly report.
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