The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell significantly in August, but is likely to be from “exaggerated” levels in July. – Indicates that activity is improving somewhat.
The Norwegian Industry Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell by 4.9 points to 51.4 points in August, according to DNB and the Norwegian Purchasing and Logistics Association (NIMA), which are responsible for the survey.
The decline follows an unusually strong rise in the previous month, which was interpreted as uncertain due to poor responses during the holidays.
– This indicates that industrial activity increased in August. Admittedly, the index is down 4.9 points from July, but the July PMI may have overestimated the activity, said the DNB/NIMA press release.
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With a response rate of 60 companies, the sample is still small, so Chief Economist Kerry Amdahl at DNB Markets is unsure how representative the survey is.
– The July numbers may have been characterized by a very small sample, which is a poor basis for comparison, he tells E24.
– What can we explain from today’s numbers?
The PMI indicates that manufacturing activity is improving somewhat after a slightly weak development before the summer, says Amdahl.
In May and June, the aggregate index was less than 50, which is an indication of lower production.
Indicates continued price growth
Amdahl notes that the index of prices for purchased goods has fallen, but is still well above 50.
This indicates that prices will continue to rise, although not as strongly as before. Among others, the participants highlighted the effects of A Weak crown And price increase On some food / agricultural products, he says.
The price index for goods purchased was 56.9 in August. It is lower than in the first half of the year, but indicates continued growth.
The value of the krone fluctuated a lot throughout the summer, but remains at historically weak levels. Now the price of one euro is 15 per cent higher than it was at the same time last year, which makes it more expensive to import goods.
On the other hand, the employment index increased significantly to nearly 53 points. So far, the rise in interest rates in the wake of higher inflation has not led to any specific increase in unemployment. However, Norges Bank expects the tightening to lead to higher unemployment over time.
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