Political analysis – trouble at home

Bergen (daily newspaper): Despite Erna Solberg’s popularity and connection: I don’t think there is any other city in Norway where the Conservative Party has fallen as hard this year as Bergen.

This spring, the party sniffed the polls in the 40s. A recent poll in Bergens Tidende and VG lowered the forecast to 25.4 percent of the vote.

The leader of the Conservative Party is wisely using the last days of the election campaign rush in his home town. As always there will be more of this Selfies And cheers off. But she will have to pick up some of them to replace the lost lead for the right.

And not only that: now the city’s city council leader, Labour’s Rune Bakerwick, is tied with Conservative challenger Christine Mayer for the first time in the referendum. Not too long ago, Meyer had a clear lead. Now 34 percent prefer her, compared to 37 percent for the current employer if the survey is to be believed.

For a long time it seemed like a “walk in the park” to the right. With only a few days left for the polls to close, it has now turned into a tough battle to rally home sitters and get more Andhra voters.

Bergen has become a thriller city Few imagined earlier this year. Against most odds, today’s city council is likely to remain stable – even if it needs to expand somewhat. If the Conservatives take power, they may demand a larger than expected majority. One or two more opposition parties may be needed to secure a majority in the city council.

The Conservative Party has already rejected MDG cooperation, so may rely on the Industry and Business Party to gain power. In addition, such a constellation should attract the left back to capitalism.

Background numbers for that The latest national municipal poll conducted by Norstat for Dagbladet tells us about what is happening in the Conservative Party.

Voter spillover from Ap to Høyre has slowed dramatically in recent months. Earlier this year, Ap lost voters to the Conservative Party. Now overall voter migration has tightened. The same applies to the aforementioned Bergen survey published by VG and BT this week.

Additionally, Labor is mobilizing more first-time voters and fence-sitters than ever before. On the other hand, the Conservatives lose 150,000 voters to the fence.

Blue-blue slime

So as not to bombard you, dear reader, With numbers and calculations, we make it simple: Labor attracts more first-time voters and fence-sitters than the party loses on the fence. The opposite is now true for the right wing.

The Conservative Party has long had a stake in the ceiling in terms of support. Simply put, you can get good numbers in polls. But you can’t count on everyone voting at the polls when the phone rings.

Over time ownership was fully mobilized. Now there has been mobilization in recent weeks. So, the election is closer than many predicted in advance.

In Bergen, the FRP is growing more now than in the last election. That may explain why the Tollbooth Party is dead and buried and the party has left behind the deep conflicts that have plagued the party for years. If the FRP picks up the momentum it had for the Conservatives, it might still work for the Conservatives if voters don’t stay home or stay with Labour.

Ironically, it can Despite the party heading into a tight election, Labor ended up a big winner in this election campaign. Despite becoming a bigger party than the AP for the first time in over a hundred years, the Conservatives will suffer major losses.

Much of it is about the app in good campaign form. Despite the government’s credibility crises, Jonas Kahr Storr insisted on several party leadership debates.

Could be a real failure

Conservatives, on the other hand, have none The system is alien to the party coming into election day. I don’t think many could have imagined that the fall would be so strong.

It was not immediately clear who would govern Bergen on election night. At least I won’t be awake for the answer. Then you have to count your waking hours.

It’s a delicate calculation, and one that will involve tough negotiations in a fragmented and irreconcilable political landscape. Either way, Haier won’t be the cuckoo king he hoped for.