August 14, 2022

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Senior analyst Jeffrey Haley at OANDA wouldn't be wise to Wall Street

Senior analyst Jeffrey Haley at OANDA wouldn’t be wise to Wall Street

The gloom returned to US stock markets on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq fell 3 percent.

NordNet analyst Roger Berntsen wrote in his morning report on Wednesday that “weak overall numbers terrified investors,” noting in particular the Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence numbers, which showed a poor mood in June.

The index came in at 98.7, lower than the expected 100.4 and even more down from 103.2 in May. This time around, it was the future prospects in particular that fell significantly, to the lowest level since March 2013.

The rise of mysterious logic

“Readers will likely stop following US stock markets in search of economic wisdom, as Tuesday’s price moves confirmed that this part of the financial world has as little insight into the future as anyone else,” wrote chief analyst Jeffrey Haley at OANDA in an update Wednesday. .

Unaffected: Senior Analyst Jeffrey Haley at Oanda. Photo: Bloomberg TV

“Last week, US stock markets rallied on the vague logic that a US recession would mean a lower peak for the Fed’s key interest rate, and so it was bullish on stocks, especially tech stocks that were bombed,” he continues, noting how Wall has reacted. Street on a weak last week poll in Michigan.

– coughs up apology

Tuesday’s sentiment in New York was not helped by a poor industry index from the Richmond Fed, which came on the heels of ugly numbers from the Dallas Fed the previous day. The services sector indices of the two banks also fell sharply in June.

Stock investors keep making excuses to “buy the dip,” and I’m sure lowering the week-long hotel quarantine in China will trigger a similar reaction there (in US magazines, note). Just remember that the virus only needs one hit in the intolerant world of China,” writes Asia-based Halley.

Consumption is holding up well

Senior economist Knut A. Magnussen at DNB Markets noted in a Wednesday morning report from the brokerage house that the CB survey remains much better than the University of Michigan consumer confidence — which fell to “all-time lows” in June.

“This is probably due to the fact that the CB metric is backed by a still strong labor market, but the Michigan metric is weaker due to higher inflation, and especially higher fuel prices. However, so far consumption appears to be holding up well, so there is no reason to fear a sudden halt. in the economy even if consumer confidence declines.”