If you’ll be flying this summer, it might be a good idea to keep your seatbelt fastened.
A new study shows that there are more chances of encountering turbulent air than before.
Researchers at the University of Reading in the UK are behind the study, looking at the evolution in the occurrence of so-called clear air turbulence between 1979 and 2020.
They themselves call what they found the clearest evidence yet that flights are getting bumpier with climate change.
55 percent increase
The researchers found the largest increase over the North Atlantic. Here, the incidence of severe disturbances has increased by 55 percent since 1979.
According to the study, mild and moderate ADHD increased by 37 percent and 17 percent, respectively, in the same period.
Although researchers found the largest increase in the North Atlantic and over the United States, the chance of encountering turbulence also became higher for those traveling to other locations.
In Europe, the Middle East, the South Atlantic, and the eastern Pacific, it is becoming more turbulent.
– more dramatic
Joseph-Henri Lacasse is Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography at the University of Oslo. He explains that much of the previous research in the region has been based on climate simulations.
– The changes we’re seeing here are more dramatic than with climate simulations, indicating that clear air turbulence will increase more than expected.
Lacasse describes the study as robust and methodical.
The results are worrying for the airline industry and air travelers.
wear and tear and risk of damage
Mark Prosser, one of the researchers behind the study, believes airlines should start thinking about how they deal with the increase in turbulence.
– Each additional minute of turbulence increases the wear and tear of the aircraft and the risk of injury to passengers and crew, says V press release.
Prosser’s research fellow Paul Williams points out in the press release that people have long known about the connection between climate change and disruption.
After a decade of research showing that climate change will increase the incidence of clear-air disturbances in the future, we now have evidence to suggest that the increase has already begun, he says.
So there is disorder
Aviation meteorologist Jean-Eric Brandt at the Meteorological Institute is not aware of the study, nor does he have data on the development of disturbances in recent years.
However, he can explain how the disorder occurred.
The key word is wind scissors, either vertically or horizontally, he says.
An aviation meteorologist explains that wind shear means that there is a large difference in wind strength or direction over a small area.
This can happen, for example, when high pressure and low pressure meet, inside storm clouds or when winds pass over mountainous terrain.
More weather, more turbulence
Airplanes can also experience wind shear, and thus turbulence, if they fly in or out of what is called the jet stream. Brandt describes this as a belt around the Earth, between cold arctic air and warm subtropical air.
When climate change brings high pressure altitude, lower pressure drop and more severe weather, this can also be felt on the fuselage.
– If the weather was more, there would be more local disturbances, says Brandt.
– So it’s not too hard to understand that climate change may have led to more disruptions. I will buy it.
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