Sangadzhieva grew up in Kalmykia in southwest Russia and now works as a senior advisor to the Helsinki Committee, which works for human rights. She believes he is now beginning to split about Russian President Vladimir Putin.
– He feels cheated on his hand, and now many of those have been caught. This is a natural development. When the dictatorship shows weakness, people start attacking each other. No one around him is safe.
At the same time, Sangadzhieva says that she explains how the Russian head of state behaves in propaganda and how he speaks, which means that he has not lost faith in himself.
– He is now angry, angry and very aggressive. But outwardly, he wants to show himself at that meeting in the Luzhniki Stadium, as a strong and popular leader.
It’s referring to Putin Last official appearance, where he appeared on a football field and spoke to the audience who attended. Sangadzhieva says the attendees are people who are “forced” to attend.
– Everything is false. Those who attend such meetings are forced to do so. They get paid and are afraid of losing their jobs if they don’t come.
Putin was misleading
The Russian expert says that the war in Ukraine will not Russia fight a war against Ukraine, but against the West and the United States. She herself did not think there was a good chance that Russia would actually invade Ukraine. She thinks a lot of that really has to do with information wars and intimidation.
In a way, it is important to understand that Putin’s only goal is to retain power.
She also noted that the FSB (Russia’s Federal Security Service) gave Putin a false impression of how easy and successful the invasion of Ukraine would be.
– According to the dangerous journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, the FSB made a big mistake when they told him that Ukraine is divided, that Zelensky is weak, that this will only be a miniature version of the Crimean annexation and that we will “do” just take a little, everyone comes with flowers and is happy » . It was misleading.
She believes that Putin was taken to bed by a Ukraine that was fighting hard. When asked what she thought would happen to Putin to stop the war, she was in doubt.
It’s hard to say, but I think the penalties that started took him by surprise. As well as the wrong information he received about the situation in Ukraine before the invasion. It hurt him. I think Putin has already lost this war. It is only a matter of time.
It points to three possible scenarios:
1. That Putin already uses nuclear weapons. It could be against Ukraine, and some spoke of neighboring countries. Then you have to prepare for it as best you can, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
2. That someone around him, the elite, is actually doing something. There is talk of an elite coup and that someone will take power. But here it depends a lot on whether sincere people have any degree of common sense.
3. The Russian economy is stagnating more and more because of the sanctions. One waits for the people of Russia to become very poor and rents to do something.
– At the end of the fall of the empire
Sangadzhieva has no doubts that Russia is heading in a new direction.
– We’re at the end of the empire’s fall. The Russian Empire began to collapse 30 years ago, but Putin tried to keep it together, but with these wars they all fall apart.
– What happens next?
– Then there must be a new Russia. This transition is, of course, difficult. There is little hope that Russia will become democratic immediately, but I remember since the 1990s how fast Russia is going. I think civil society will be important here.
– Society has already made a transition proposal, and Putin knows this. He knows there is an alternative for him. Either way, it will be a different start. I think the community is very modern.
Limited contact with the circuit
Professor in the Department of Defense Studies, Jardar Ostbo, says Putin has changed in the past decade.
The Putin we knew before, who was pragmatic and open to listening to information and advice from various quarters, is a thing of the past. And in the past ten years it has appeared to be under ideological control or at least enjoy legitimacy.
Ostbow says there has also been a change in the past two years, especially during the pandemic.
He limited his contact with his circle, so he harassed him to go around the security and military men. While everyday politics was delegated to technocrats. Then Putin focused on the big strategic decisions, and then this affected those who surrounded him and those who listened to him.
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