IDC warns of a bleak 2022 for the mobile phone industry after several quarters of negative development.
Analyzed company reports:
“Ongoing supply issues with semiconductors will decrease in the second half of 2022. With SoC (system on a chip), 4G SoC supply has been an issue, but the market continues to shift towards 5G chips, it’s a positive.
IDC notes that the biggest problem has been the lack of availability of components such as PMICs (“power management integrated circuit”), monitor drivers, and separate Wi-Fi chips. The throughput of semiconductors made with higher process nodes is increased – newer versions of Wi-Fi chips are produced with newer process nodes. At the same time, demand is declining. Taken together, these supply and demand changes will further increase market equilibrium.”
So they expect at the end of the year that the problems will largely be gone and that the market will be healthy again with growth of up to 5 per cent. This is good news for Apple, which always releases new models in the fall.
Why is Apple protected?
It is Covid that is causing the problems, so the production partners of companies such as Apple and Samsung have been reduced, but according to the same agency, Apple is less vulnerable because they have greater control over the supply chain “and because most customers in the premium price bracket are less affected by macroeconomic problems such as bankruptcy”.
The decline will not continue: we expect a long-term rise of 1.9 percent
As for the market, it means that mobile phone sales will drop to 1.33 billion units in 2022, a decrease of 3.5 percent.
IDC even reports that this is after three consecutive quarters with a decline in sales and “increasing challenges to both supply and demand. Consequently, IDC has significantly reduced its numbers for 2022 from an increase of 1.6 percent”, according to IDC, which is thus moving from the high to decline.
They still think the downturn will be short and the market will come back – and they expect a rebound until 2026.
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