For nearly three months, the Ukrainians have been trying to break through the Russian defenses in the south of the country. Is this the moment many Ukrainians have been waiting for?
- Ukrainian soldiers raised the national flag in the village of Robotin, Zaporizhia province, in southern Ukraine, confirming control of the village.
- Russia responded by sending elite forces to block further Ukrainian advances.
- According to a Ukrainian commander, Ukrainian forces have penetrated the strongest lines of Russian defence, which could allow for a faster advance.
- And before the summer, Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive with the declared aim of breaking through the Russian defense line in the south and reaching the Sea of Azov.
- Trenches, mines and drones have so far blocked a major Ukrainian advance, but controlling the two robots is an important development in the war.
- Scientists are cautious about predicting what this development might mean.
- Many point to Russian anxiety and the lack of significant operational reserves.
Before the war, few people outside Ukraine had heard of the small village of Robotyn in Zaporizhia Province, southern Ukraine.
But now Ukrainian soldiers have raised a yellow-and-blue flag in the center of the bombed-out front-line village, which Ukraine confirmed control of on Monday night.
Meanwhile, there are signs of Russian anxiety: the Russians are sending in now Elite forces from other parts of the front to stop the Ukrainian advance.
Why is development in this particular place in Ukraine so important?
Because nothing big Can About to happen in war:
A Ukrainian commander said that Ukrainian forces believe they have breached Russia’s toughest line of defense in southern Ukraine, and the forces will now be able to advance faster. Reuters over the weekend, adding:
– We don’t stop here. I made it clear to my warriors. Our goal is not the robots, our goal is the Sea of Azov.
In June, Ukraine’s main counteroffensive began to recover the territories occupied by the Russians.
Expectations were high. Many believe that, thanks to new military equipment, tanks sent in from the West, and thousands of soldiers trained in NATO countries, Ukraine can quickly regain much of its territory.
Ukraine’s stated aim of the attack was to break through the Russian defense line in southern Ukraine, reach the Sea of Azov, and thus divide the occupied territories in two.
But the Russians were very well prepared.
They cleared kilometer after kilometer of the formidable Russian defence, with mined fields, trenches and tank trenches. It has been further protected by Russian artillery, drones and attack helicopters.
Massive Russian resistance led to three months of scant progress for the Ukrainians throughout the summer. They also lost a large number of soldiers trying to break through.
But now the liberation of Robotyn, located just ten kilometers from where they started in June, is being highlighted as a potentially significant development.
And Russia for several months defended the village with everything it had. The fierce resistance here has led many to speculate whether the Russian defense south of this village is not that strong.
In the map below you can see the location of Ropotyn north of the Sea of Azov. The black dots are Russian defensive works that the Ukrainians must pass through.
For the first time since World War II
Military analysts are waiting for VG to be positive about the roads in Ukraine.
– I would call this a partial hack, which we don’t yet know to what extent Ukraine will be able to exploit it, says Tor Bokvall, senior researcher at VG Defense Research Institute.
He notes that Ukraine succeeded in penetrating the first large field and the first line of trenches. Meanwhile, there are still many, minefields ahead.
– Maybe things will go faster for the Ukrainians after that, but maybe it’s not just a matter of asking. The barriers that Russia has built are still good.
Lieutenant Colonel and Chief Instructor of the Defense Staff School, Geir Hagen Carlsen, has the same analysis:
– Even if Ukraine breaks through somewhere, they will move to new defensive positions. There they will come under counterattacks from helicopters, drones and artillery, he told VG.
Then he adds:
– What the Ukrainians are trying to do now, which is to break through such a line of defense, which no army in the West has done against an enemy since World War II. It is very difficult, and Western countries cannot teach Ukrainians this.
He explains how the Ukrainians are forced to walk, meter after meter, along the battlefield in southern Ukraine.
– Because of the density of the minefields, they have to remove mines, meter by meter, at night, so that Russian planes cannot find them. “Obviously, it takes an enormous amount of time,” he says.
This is the way to the sea
The first obvious target for Ukrainian forces after Robotene is the town of Tokmak, which is described as an important hub for Russian supply lines.
On maps of Russian defense works, one sees a carefully planned defense in a ring around the city.
To the southwest of Tokmak is the larger port city of Melitopol, which the Russians captured early on after last year’s massive invasion.
Tokmak and Melitopol are described as central to Russia’s grip on southern Ukraine. The battle for these cities is also expected to be very fierce.
what is happening now?
Many international analysts now point to signs that Russia is becoming overly concerned about the Ukrainian advance. Among other things, the Russians are now said to have sent reinforcements from elsewhere along the front, to the area south of Ropotyn.
Institute for the Study of War He also writes that Russia now lacks significant operational reserve forces to deploy in combat.
They write that the Ukrainian penetration may be difficult for the Russians to stop quickly, and that such an advance could create panic among the Russians and make the Ukrainians more of a chance.
Defense experts VG spoke to are cautious about predicting what the latest development means.
– the maximum that Ukraine could achieve before autumn rainautumn rainAccording to experience, the autumn rains come around the end of October. And it makes the land more muddy, which hinders the progress of military vehicles. The beginning is to reach the Sea of Azov. If they succeed, they will be in the port city of Melitopol, thus cutting off the road between Russia and Crimea. If the Ukrainians can do it, it will be big and exceed expectations, Tor Bokvall tells VG.
Geir Hagen Carlsen doubts the Ukrainians will be able to reach the Sea of Azov this year, despite recent progress.
– I wouldn’t put my money on them coming to sea this fall, but it’s very hard to predict. We simply know little about what spare units the Russians and Ukrainians have. It is impossible to say what will happen, he says and concludes:
– Having said that: In this war we’ve had quite a few surprises so far.
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