These are the reasons why Russia cannot win in Ukraine, even if it can win in Donbass, according to the defense professor.
In recent weeks, Russia has been responsible Several missile attacks on Ukrainian citiesas well as controlling the major cities of Sevierodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk.
However, there can be no talk of a Russian victory in Ukraine.
This is the view of Tormod Heyer, a professor at the Norwegian Defense College. This is justified by the fact that the war has already inflicted so many strategic defeats on Russia that even if it were victorious in the battle of the Donbass region in the east, it would still lose peace.
Heyer points out four major strategic mistakes he believes Russia made during the invasion of Ukraine.
1. The United States with a European return
The war sent archenemy the United States back at full speed to Europe with large nuclear and conventional forces closer to the frontier than before. They were on their way to Asia, but now it looks like they’re on their way to Europe with stronger leadership, more weapons, and they’re stronger on the borders, Heyer says.
2. The new member states of NATO
Russia has intimidated two very important NATO buffer states, Sweden and Finland. Russia is now seeing that the border with NATO is doubling, and that there may be more US military infrastructure near its border.
3. NATO is more united
Heyer also notes that the war led to the resurgence of glue in NATO.
Russia took advantage of the fact that NATO was an alliance of 30 different members prior to the membership of Sweden and Finland, which meant that the alliance was fragmented. Russia now faces an alliance that is more entrenched than before.
4. Germany shows defensive muscles
The fourth mistake that Haier lists relates to Germany 100 billion euros have been spent on renewing the country’s defense result of the war.
– The German armed forces (German Defense, AnnM. magazine) will have much greater economic power in the coming years, and it is likely that Germany will become a dominant European military power, not far from the Russian borders. Haier says this is a big loss for Russia.
Read also: Inside Stoltenberg’s NATO High Game
Control or disaster?
Analysts noted that Russia took a break from the war after seizing the main cities of Severodonetsk and Lysechhansk in Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. That’s what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes is wrong, according to NTB.
Monday morning A missile hit an apartment building in Kharkiv. Three people were killed and 16 injured, according to local authorities.
On the same day, Zelenskyj also wrote the following on Telegram:
– 34 Russian bombers over the past 24 hours are the answer to everyone who talks about this “break”. The Ukrainian army strongly opposes and repels attacks from several directions.
However, Professor Heyer says it is possible that Russia could win Donbass.
But the point of using military force is to turn military victories into a form of political countdown. For Russia, this was a disastrous four to five point and means they have never been more vulnerable.
Turn the target upside down
It’s hard to say what it means for Russia to “win” the war, says Tor Bokful, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI).
Russia had intended to take over the whole country, but now it has gradually retreated to take control of Luhansk, Donetsk and parts of southern Ukraine, a much smaller area. Russia does not have enough military capacity to stand firm on all fronts at once. He says that if they want to advance somewhere, more troops should be moved there.
– Russia has changed its goal according to how the war will end. You usually have a target before you get into the army, but Russia turned it on its head. The way things went militarily, Bukefol says, has changed the target.
Admittedly, this does not mean that the focus cannot be changed.
– It may happen that Kyiv becomes a target. If one imagined that Ukraine regained everything except Crimea, it would probably be seen as a victory, but many Ukrainians would disagree with that. This, he concludes, makes it difficult to determine who will win the war.
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