Russia has been occupying Ukraine for over a hundred days now. The world has seen the war that rocked Europe.
Millions of Ukrainians have been sent on the so-called largest flight Refugee disaster In Europe after World War II. Many have chosen to return to the bombed-out cities, where the fighting has calmed down in Kiev and the surrounding suburbs.
Russia was blamed War crimes, But there were no quiet signs of an attack. They lost the Battle of Kiev. Now the Russians are focusing on the Donetsk and Luhansk districts.
– Tactical withdrawal
Tom Rochett, head of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that Ukraine is smart and does not take its position at any cost, but rather focuses on the greatest possible Russian loss.
– Ukraine accepts tactical withdrawal, but that does not mean they lose Donbass. There are still large areas, but Luhansk County is the most challenging, Rochet says.
He says there was only one city of strategic importance now, before the Russians captured the entire district.
May lose Luhansk
The city of Lysyansk is located on the border of the Donetsk region.
The city next to the Severdonets would be of strategic importance to the Russians if they could capture the entire province of Luhansk.
– If they lose Lyczynsk, they lose the whole of Luhansk, Rochet says.
– Given the growth over the past three weeks, the chances of the Russians seizing the city are higher than Ukraine’s retreat. The main factors are signs of Russian wear and tear, Ukrainian reinforcements and rapid foreign arms support.
Although the Russians have now lost both weapons and trained personnel, the Russians have the upper hand. Rochett says the Russians have been diligent for a long time and will continue to do so in the future.
But he also points to the willingness of Ukraine to persevere.
– Ukrainians have long been willing to hold office. We last saw Mariupol. But I think here they will choose to stay away so they can focus on protecting cities like Kramatorsk.
One detail is important
However, it may take several weeks for Russia to regulate Licensing.
But if the Russians control the supply lines within the province of Luhansk, it will take significantly less time.
– There is a risk that Russia will control the supply lines, says Rochett.
Lavrov posed for the wall by a Ukrainian journalist
He says because the Russians are so close to the main roads that supply route, there is a big risk that they will take over the supply line.
If the current plan fails, there are other options that Ukrainians could use. But these are the worst options.
– Then there will be other ways that are not so good, then you will be faster on the defensive if you do not have safe and good delivery ways to Lysytsjansk.
There is no sign of an end to the war
On Friday, news came that there were no Soviet weapons in Ukraine. Rochett believes this is very serious.
– It is said that they had weapons. It is hard for me to believe that they have lost everything, but it is clear that great material losses have occurred. Ukraine is now highly dependent on the West. Western nations have increased its armed support, with no indication that it will cease.
But the lack of weapons now is not limited to Ukraine. Russia also appears to be struggling to produce enough weapons as a result of the embargo. Russia relies on microchips to produce new and advanced weapons with GPS control.
But while Russia is now struggling to produce new weapons, they are still materially superior.
– They have many old weapons such as tanks, artillery and anti-armor weapons, says Rosette.
Russia, on the other hand, is struggling to find enough staff. Ukraine, for its part, rose to the forefront of the staff.
– Both parties are starting to get very tired both materially and personally. It could lead to a ceasefire, but it does not seem immediate.
– Rochett concludes that there are no signs that the war is over.
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