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Until now Most of the crisis management regarding the war in Ukraine was for Norway’s leading export after oil, Jens Stoltenberg. But next week, a new chapter in NATO history begins, and thus for Stoltenberg’s final term as NATO chief. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the NATO summit in Vilnius – with the alliance’s heads of state and government – will build its future, following its sudden new significance a year and a half ago, when warlord Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale occupation of Ukraine.
Russia and Putin You will be at the center of all discussions and on everyone’s lips in the beautiful Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. How is NATO supposed to be faster, stronger, and more forward-looking than Putin at any time – and under any circumstances? How can security be ensured at a suddenly uncertain time in Europe? Should NATO limit itself to a commitment to the security of Europe and the North Atlantic? How can one think about security in the core areas of NATO without taking into account China’s increasing power and divergence?
Still, Russia And Putin is the keynote speaker at the summit. One of the pressing questions at the summit is what to offer Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants an invitation and a clear plan for NATO membership once arms stop in Ukraine. Over the summer, Stoltenberg worked to reduce Ukraine to NATO.
Zelensky wants it A concrete promise of membership in the NATO summit, but it is unlikely that he will receive it. Instead, Stoltenberg is working towards a shortcut to the alliance that does not include all the work with synchronized weapons and systems, as other countries have to pass. Presumably, the United States and Germany were on edge, they were afraid of provoking Russia by opening the door wide for Ukraine.
Swedish Membership Another question, as Turkey refused until the very top, to accept our neighboring country as a member because many prominent Kurds of the PKK, the Kurdish liberation movement, live in Sweden. Türkiye and the United States, among other countries, believe they are terrorists. Türkiye wants more members handed over to it, which of course will not happen.
But here it applies To find the formulations, and then it helps the American pressure, which the American president has put on the particularly uncooperative Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in recent days. Speculation is growing about a separate meeting between Biden and Erdogan in Vilnius. If that happens, there are many indications that the “Sweden problem” could be resolved.
China is the third Big questions asked by the top managers of the Alliance with them to Vilnius. For geopolitical reasons, China is doomed to be unable to cut off the hands of Putin’s regime due to the disastrous invasion of Ukraine. The disintegration of Russia would be a major geopolitical setback for China. China also shows a strikingly high interest in the Arctic, which has its own security policy aspects. China and Russia are emerging as “internationalists of autocrats” in international politics, as alternative to – admittedly – not always the typical democratic nations of NATO. However, there is a distinct difference between the vision that the West and the “tyrannical internationalism” present to the world. “Freedom” is still a NATO brand — admittedly a little bloated, but still relevant.
NATO is back to square one, Also in other ways. The Coalition will reorganize its traditional area defense, to use the football metaphor. Since it is about invoking Putin’s Russia – containment in the English Cold War – defense has been organized into three areas. First the Atlantic Ocean, the European Arctic, then the Baltic Sea and Central Europe, with the new members Finland and – soon – Sweden, the old members of the Warsaw Pact, then the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
On the top In Madrid a year ago, NATO decided that it should be able to muster a force of 100,000 troops to action in critical locations in less than ten days, and another 200,000 within a month. The purpose is to reassure the Baltic states – and to prove to Russia – that NATO can mobilize its defenses faster than Russia can prepare for a final assault. Like I said, we’re talking about zone defense, which is kind of Drillo’s security policy.
All warning lights are on. But there is no direct danger. Putin’s deadly war in Ukraine means Russia has a long way to go to build a new defense – or offense – before they pose a serious threat to NATO. It is expected to take at least seven years. In the meantime, maybe Jens Stoltenberg’s race as NATO chief is coming to an end?
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