December 6, 2021

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Far fewer corona patients than feared.  A dangerous trend can be broken

Far fewer corona patients than feared. A dangerous trend can be broken

Two weeks ago, health officials feared that hospitals could now have nearly 500 corona patients. It did not go that way.

The emergency room at Ahus is equipped to accommodate a sharp increase in the number of corona patients. But the number of patients this week is more than half what health officials feared two weeks ago.

New and severe infection counseling. The trumpet has returned to Oslo. Every day there are new infection registration posts.

On Monday, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Health Minister Ingvild Kjerkol met with exhausted nurses and doctors in Ahus.

But despite the increase in unrest, there has been a significant, positive development in recent weeks.

The flow of patients is less than frightening. This is a bright spot before a long epidemic winter, where anything can happen.

Less patient development than feared

“The curves below show a dramatic growth,” Health Director Bjrn Gouldwalk wrote to Health Minister Ingville Gerkol two weeks ago.

Health officials said this was also a factor Recommended Strict measures such as corona certification, high entry control and isolation. Kerkol asked to stop shaking hands.

The arrows pointed straight at the inpatients.

That was two weeks ago Evaluation As of November 21, about 478 corona patients will be in hospitals. FHIs Risk measurement Last week, 447 patients were admitted.

That did not happen. The most important curve is broken.

On Wednesday, 232 corona patients were hospitalized. This is less than half of the estimate two weeks ago.

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Last week only 20 new corona patients were admitted to the intensive care unit.

Although no one knows what winter is, the risk of hospitals exploding before Christmas is now significantly lower.

What happened?

What is the reason?

There may be several reasons why the patient’s curve may not rise fast enough.

  • Predictions assume that nothing will change. Predictions are based on the fact that the epidemic we had continues.
  • Without the introduction of measures, people may have already changed their behavior. Many cultural organizations, for example, report multiple unsold tickets.
  • In cities such as Trondheim, Bergen and Tromsø, some activities have been introduced. Many have tested themselves, thus diagnosing more infections.

But if we go deeper than the daily infection statistics, we see the key explanation for why the number of patients estimated two weeks ago is now halved.

The development of infection among the elderly has been halted

In mid-October, the infection rate among the elderly rose dramatically.

The number of affected 80-year-olds has increased from 50-60 new cases to more than 200 per year. Week. Patients over the age of 75 drowned.

These are the main drivers behind the development of patients.

The last few weeks have shown a new and positive trend. The development of the infection has stopped among the very old.

If that had not happened, there would have been more patients in Norwegian hospitals now.

However, the persistent increase in infection among those in their 40s and 70s is not positive.

Infection is most prevalent among those in their 40s and 60s, and they now make up the largest group of newly admitted patients.

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When Prime Minister Jonas Kardashian and Health Minister Ingville Kerkol visited Ahus earlier this week.

Why is this so important?

Although most people have been vaccinated, this fall experience shows that vaccines are less protective of the elderly than expected and thought.

Therefore, the age of the victims is very important for whether hospitals are approaching the breaking point.

  • One in 11 victims over the age of 80 was admitted this fall.
  • In comparison, one in 82 of the affected 40 or 50 year olds is admitted, this fall experiences. Of the 19-year-olds, only 0.051 percent needed hospital treatment.

The decrease in infection among older people is reflected in recent estimates of FHI.

The number of patients will increase. But it is considerably slower. “The increase is clearly moderate, especially in the elderly,” he writes FHI.

This is the latest forecast for NIPH. The red arrow shows how drastically the number of admissions in patients over 75 years of age has been reduced. Short-term forecasts suggest that the current epidemic will continue.

Will this trend continue?

– It does not seem to be vertical with hospitalization and infections, says Line Vault, director of the department at FHI.

She points out that the r-number is decreasing and coming around 1. In addition, more infection was detected as a result of the mass test.

– What do you think is the reason why only 221 elderly people over the age of 80 were affected across Norway last week? Have we followed the instructions a little more carefully?

– Vaccination is the most important thing. The vast majority of people over the age of 65 are now given a refreshing dose. It can have an effect. After the third dose you will get a quick immunity. But people may have changed their behavior somewhat. You might be a little more careful, especially if you belong to a risk group, Volt says.

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– There is a cautious belief, but it is too soon to decide whether this is a lasting trend.

Even higher mortality rate

The number of corona deaths in Norway now equals the first weeks of the epidemic in April 2020.

In Norway, 87 people have died of corona in the past two weeks.

This means that the death rate in Norway is now higher in Scandinavia and higher than in countries like Spain, France and Italy.

An important reason is that there have been 87 explosions in nursing homes and health care facilities since mid-October.

One reason for the increase in mortality despite the declining number of patients is that most nursing home residents are not admitted to the hospital.

At the same time, the total death toll in Norway is rising. They are now at a higher level than they were four years before the epidemic.

For the first time since the flu outbreak in 2018, “increased mortality” is now measured in Norway at 43 weeks. This is shown by the FHI’s death watchdog system, Normomo.