EIENDOM NORGE/OSLO (Nettavisen): House prices fell by 0.9 percent in December (0.2 percent seasonally adjusted), according to the latest figures from Eiendom Norge.
The market is worse than expected.
– It is not a housing crisis, but a construction crisis in Norway today, Henning Lauridsen, managing director of Eiendom Norge, tells Nettavisen in this video interview:
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The construction industry has been struggling since last year saw few homes sold alongside new construction projects. This is the third quarter of last year Lowest launch since 1999 According to the forecast center.
– This means we will have a housing crisis from next year because the population is growing. And then there will be some finished homes that will be a problem, he says, looking back at history.
– There are many unsold homes for sale now, how will this affect the price level?
– What we see based on past data is that it doesn't have a big impact on house prices. About the same number of homes are put up for sale each year, so demand varies.
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Here, the interest rate cuts announced in 2024 will come to the rescue:
– Housing Top believes that if there are any positive signals about interest rate cuts going forward, the stock of oversold houses will be gradually eaten away, leaving house prices unaffected. .
Lauridsen believes the “interest rate ghost” can soon be ignored:
– The market is now pricing in six interest rates in both the Eurozone and the US. If it works, Norges Bank should follow suit very quickly – in the first half of the year. The positive impact we have on the housing market.
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According to chief economist Kyrre M. Knudsen, unsold homes, the so-called “housing mountain,” have increased a lot in a short period of time.
– This can lead to sellers eventually taking the property off the market because they are not getting the price they want. “Then these are “hidden” in the market and mean that prices are actually artificially high,” he tells Netavisen.
– Some people say that you create statistics by getting rid of unsold houses. What do you say to that, Lauridsen?
– I've seen this argument, but I don't fully understand it until the houses sell well. The same number of homes have been sold as in 2022, so that's how the market is performing. People who don't want to sell won't sell. It is very strange to say what the unsold houses are worth then.
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– Unsold and idle houses, how are they included in the statistics?
– No, all houses are in the statistics for six months, then they are based on the census figures.
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