– It will be the last nightmare for the Democrats, says Hans-Olaf Lahloum about the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden – Dagsavisen

– It will be the last nightmare for the Democrats, says Hans-Olaf Lahloum about the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden – Dagsavisen

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are closest to Donald Trump in opinion polls in the battle to become the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in the 2024 elections, but the distance between him and the former president is great. Despite the numerous legal measures against Trump, it is currently likely to be a rematch of the previous election campaign duel between the Trump and Joe Biden duo.

If Trump becomes the Republican Party’s nominee, it will be interesting to see how the losing Republican candidates position themselves. Chris Christie has put himself in a confrontational position, while Ron DeSantis has hardened and gone from being a strong second behind Trump to a weak third behind Trump and Haley.

This is what historian, TV presenter and author Hans Olaf Lahloumi told Dagsavisen. Among others, he published the books “Trump, Biden and the Battle for the United States,” “From a United States of America to a United States Divided” and “The Presidents.”

Lahloum: Therefore, Biden must hope for Trump

-I sit and wonder if Nikki Haley could possibly be a current running mate for Trump. If she were willing to do so, one could imagine that she could attract more “respectable” voters among Republicans, and thus could boost Trump, Lahloum says:

– I think the ultimate nightmare for Democrats is for Donald Trump to become the Republican nominee and win. Meanwhile, Democrats have a better chance of achieving another electoral victory if Trump becomes the Republican nominee.

US President Joe Biden spoke on Friday about a ceasefire and releases following the agreement between Hamas and Israel.  Photo: Stephanie Scarbrough/AP/NTB

– Why?

Donald Trump’s age is close to Joe Biden’s age, and he is the subject of strong competition. Trump has a large support base, but at the same time it is a large group that does not like him. It is easier to convince people to turn out for Biden against Trump than if Biden’s opponent is from the next generation. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are more traditional Republican politicians, at least compared to Trump, and will not lead to the same degree of polarization. I don’t think anyone would ask, “Is this the end of democracy?” If Haley becomes president, like they do with Trump.

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Trend in opinion polls in the United States

Joe Biden’s popularity fell in October to its lowest level in six months, according to an American opinion poll. Although polls on the Biden versus Trump scenario have recently been very tied, the president has had a downward trend, he wrote. POLITICO.

Biden has never had impressive polls as president, but I consider him a weak candidate next year. But Lahloum says there is a great deal of uncertainty.

The situation is now relatively equal between the two. So you know, if you’re to believe the experience of last time, that Democrats need some swing of the vote to be able to win a majority of voters. Maybe two percent could hold. But on the other hand, the 2024 elections will likely be limited to a few states, the historian predicts.

Hans Olaf Lahloumi

American media indicated that states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could be decisive, as they were four years ago.

Personally, Lahloumi considers it a worrying situation for American democracy to be competing against two of these longtime presidential candidates.

– Already in 2020, the two were the oldest ever. I think it takes a lot. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding two of these veteran candidates, especially when it comes to their health.

A push to stop Trump

Lahloum highlights Joe Biden’s suggestion that Trump is the reason he is running for re-election.

– He wants to prevent Trump from winning. And I think Biden’s chance of winning would be clearly better if Trump were an opponent. There is a lot of “for and against Trump” in the United States, given the storming of Congress and the legal actions against the former president.

Lahloum says he belongs to those who criticize Biden’s failure to concede a four-year presidential term.

The problem with the Democrats is that there is no clear successor. The historian notes that this may also have played a role in Biden’s decision.

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Several hundred people have been sentenced after the storming of Congress in 2021.

At the same time, Biden is taking a big risk. If he runs for election and loses, it will affect his perception and legacy.

– Someone then says that he is an old man and should not stand, and so on. But Democrats have had problems with the “later growth” of the party. You don’t have clear successors, Lahloum says.

Who will come after Joe Biden?

“Imagine if Joe Biden suddenly became too sick to run for election,” Lahloum says.

– Who will the Democrats turn to then? It’s completely wide open.

– You can imagine names like Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer, but both are sitting quietly in the boat now so as not to appear disloyal to Biden, the historian continues.

Far-right militia members have been sentenced to prison for planning to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer from her vacation cabin in Elk Rapids in 2020. Photograph: Carlos Osorio/AP/NTB

From the Democrats’ perspective, it’s joy mixed with horror, or terror mixed with joy, that makes Trump stand out so much among the candidates on the Republican side, he believes.

Democrats believe that the chance of winning is greater if Trump is on the other side. It is, after all, hugely controversial, and has had renewed vigor after the storming of Congress on January 6, 2021, as well as in all the legal actions taken against it. Lahloum says Trump offers great mobilization potential for both sides.

If there is an economic rebound in the run-up to the election, he believes Biden has a reasonably good chance of winning.

– But as we mentioned, he has a challenge with age. You can’t outgrow your age, as the saying goes. Meanwhile, Trump is also elderly and may have health problems himself.

Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/AP/NTB

Lahloum believes that next year’s election campaign, at least as it appears now, will largely be a referendum on the rival candidate.

– Partly because he’s the former president, as we mentioned, but mostly because he’s Donald Trump, and he has, to put it politely, a controversial history from the 2020 election.

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Read more about the United States and American politics here

The hook in the door to democracy? No, Lahloum says

The historian also believes it will play a big role in how well Biden does financially, and with an issue like immigration, as we get closer to the election. Additionally, a discussion about self-induced abortion could help Biden and company. Lahloum believes that this provides the greatest mobilization potential for Democrats in the most important swing states.

Republicans will press hard on the fact that they believe the president has failed on the border with Mexico. For their part, the Democrats will come out forcefully against Trump on the same issue, “What did Trump actually achieve at the border?”, in addition to legal measures and the storming of Congress. Then there is the international situation, which will also affect. So it will be a very difficult election campaign. The outcome will likely remain open for some time. It will be a very interesting election year, says the historian and continues:

– Biden is witnessing the return of normal life in the United States after the Trump presidency. It faces some structural challenges. Among other things, rising prices have caused a lot of unrest, and the country has become more polarized. But it has long been said of the Danish Prime Minister that he cannot be overrated at all. You can say the same about Joe Biden. He was elected because people wanted to get back to normal life, and away from Trump. This is the exercise he has to do again. But it is demanding the re-election of an 81-year-old president.

WEST HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 29: The first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is broadcast on television at The Abbey, which seats patrons at socially distanced outdoor tables, on September 29, 2020 in West Hollywood, California.  The debate taking place in Cleveland, Ohio, is the first of three scheduled debates between Trump and Biden.  Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP

several He expressed concern about democracy in the United States if Trump wins. What do you think that?

– I do not think that Trump’s election victory will be a “hook on the door” for democracy in the United States, because the United States has very well-established institutions. But if he wins, it will still be a litmus test for the United States. Lahloumi answers, whether at the internal level, or at the level of international cooperation as well, with NATO and others like it.

He doubts we will see a more conciliatory Trump if he wins.

– Rather, it is likely that there will be more polarization, to the extent possible. Trump can drive faster emphasisAnd pardon the people who supported him in connection with the storming of Congress.

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Jabori Obasanjo

Jabori Obasanjo

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